The recent pullback in US equities is disproportionately impacting the IPO market, creating heightened uncertainty for companies still aiming to go public before year-end. Several newly listed firms—including Gemini Space Station (GEMI.US), Fermi (FRMI.US), Navan (NAVN.US), and Stubhub Holdings (STUB.US)—have seen their shares quickly retreat below their offering prices. Even high-performing newcomers like CoreWeave (CRWV.US), Circle Internet Group (CRCL.US), and Figma (FIG.US) have suffered sharp declines.
As a result, IPO returns in 2025 have significantly underperformed. Data shows that US IPOs (excluding closed-end funds and SPACs) have delivered a weighted average return of just 9.7% this year, lagging far behind the S&P 500’s nearly 15% gain.
The timing of this downturn is particularly inconvenient. Following the end of the longest US government shutdown last week, expectations were high for a year-end IPO rush. Renaissance Capital IPO strategist Matt Kennedy noted, “When markets decline, investors often dump less-conviction-driven new listings—it’s a typical pattern.”
Due to shutdown-related filing delays, at least six well-prepared companies could theoretically launch roadshows and price before year-end. Some, like Missouri-based Central Bancompany, aim to price before Thanksgiving. However, firms yet to start marketing face a tight window, with many likely pushed to December due to holiday disruptions.
Bankers acknowledge that investors typically reduce risk exposure near year-end, making lower participation in new issues unsurprising. Still, fears of an “IPO freeze” remain absent. Despite last week’s selloff, Grayscale Investments and SoftBank-backed Asian travel platform Klook filed for IPOs targeting December listings.
UBS Americas ECM co-head Steve Studnicky emphasized that corporate interest in US listings is far stronger than in December 2024, even as doubts grow over a Fed rate cut next month. “If preparations are complete, there’s absolutely still a window to go public before Christmas—strike while the iron is hot,” he said, expressing optimism for both late-2025 and 2026 pipelines. “The backlog remains enormous across industries. If not 2025, these deals will land in 2026.”