US Treasury Market: Stronger-than-Expected Job Openings Data Weighs on Bonds, Flattening Yield Curve

Deep News
12/10

US Treasuries declined, led by short- and intermediate-dated bonds, as better-than-expected JOLTS job openings data for September and October weighed on the market. The yield curve flattened, with the 5-year to 30-year spread narrowing by about 2.5 basis points to around 103 basis points—marking the fourth consecutive day of decline after surpassing 110 basis points last week. Losses moderated following solid demand in the 10-year Treasury auction.

Short-end yields rose more than 3 basis points by mid-afternoon in New York, while long-end yields saw little change. The 10-year yield climbed 1.5 basis points to around 4.18%, and the 2-year to 10-year spread flattened by roughly 1.5 basis points.

At the time of the 10-year auction, yields hovered near session highs. The reopening sale’s high yield was 4.175%, matching pre-auction trading levels. Primary dealers took 8.8%, below the recent average of 9.5%, while indirect bidders were awarded 70.2%, offsetting a drop in direct bidder allotments to 21%. The bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55 was slightly below the six-auction average of 2.59.

Ahead of Wednesday’s Fed rate decision, overnight index swaps priced in about 22 basis points of easing, little changed before and after the JOLTS release. By year-end 2025, cumulative implied rate cuts stood at 71 basis points, down from 76 basis points at Monday’s close.

The auction cycle concludes Thursday with a $22 billion 30-year bond reopening, while no issuance is scheduled Wednesday due to the FOMC meeting.

As of 3:30 PM ET: - 2-year yield: 3.6064% - 5-year yield: 3.7744% - 10-year yield: 4.18% - 30-year yield: 4.8039% - 5s30s spread: 102.78 basis points - 2s10s spread: 57.16 basis points

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