On Friday, March 27, during the early Asian trading session, spot gold was trading near $4,430.94 per ounce. The price of gold fell nearly 3% on Thursday, primarily influenced by a stronger US dollar and shifting market expectations regarding the Middle East situation. On Thursday, March 26, gold prices fluctuated lower, ending a two-day rising streak. During the US trading session, spot gold (XAU/USD) continued to decline, hitting a daily low of $4,366.87, representing a drop of approximately $150 from Wednesday's peak of $4,602.
Fundamental Analysis: Mixed signals from former US President Trump regarding the Iran nuclear agreement have heightened global market uncertainty, causing gold's traditional safe-haven appeal to diminish. Concurrently, substantial gold sales by the Turkish central bank, rising US Treasury yields, and increased market speculation of a more hawkish Federal Reserve have intensified downward pressure on gold. Reduced risks of escalating geopolitical tensions have further weakened gold's safe-haven demand. Although uncertainties in the Middle East persist, market focus has shifted toward monetary policy direction, with geopolitical factors temporarily taking a back seat to Fed policy. This has prevented a reversal of gold's weak trend, providing only minor support near recent lows to avoid a one-sided, disorderly decline. Additionally, surging oil prices have created a reverse transmission chain of "oil prices-inflation-interest rates," reinforcing the Fed's determination to maintain high interest rates, which presents a dual bearish factor for gold.
Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, gold remains in a medium-term downtrend, trading close to the lower Bollinger Band, which is expanding downward, indicating a clear short-term bearish trend with no signs of stabilization. The moving average system shows a typical bearish alignment, with prices consistently trading below the averages, which act as strong resistance. The 5-day moving average serves as the primary resistance level for short-term rebounds; today's failure to break above this level further confirms weak upward momentum. The MACD indicator shows sufficient bearish momentum, with the fast and slow lines remaining below the zero line. The current DIF reading is -28.6, and the DEA is -32.1. Although the green bars are narrowing slightly, there is no clear golden crossover signal, and the narrowing is minimal, suggesting any rebound momentum is short-lived and not indicative of a sustained reversal. The RSI is at 28.7, near oversold territory but not yet entering it. In a unilateral downtrend, oversold conditions typically signal a potential technical rebound rather than a trend reversal, with the daily chart overall maintaining a bearish bias.
The 4-hour chart, serving as a key intermediate timeframe, currently shows an oversold rebound after a significant decline, forming a brief consolidation range. Specifically, gold has rebounded slightly from around $4,351 per ounce and is now above the 5-day moving average, approaching the middle Bollinger Band. However, multiple resistance levels loom above, with the upper Bollinger Band and the MA60 forming a strong resistance zone—a previous consolidation area with substantial trapped positions. A breakout would require significant volume support, but current 4-hour trading volume continues to shrink, casting doubt on the rebound's sustainability and suggesting a high probability of range-bound movement. The MACD has formed a golden crossover below the zero line, with red bars slowly expanding, indicating that short-term rebound momentum is not entirely exhausted. However, golden crossovers below the zero line often represent technical corrections within a downtrend and rarely signal a trend reversal. A confirmed medium-term rebound would require the MACD lines to stabilize above the zero line. The RSI is in a neutral-to-weak range, near the 50 threshold, with limited upside due to weekly chart resistance. A slight bearish divergence in the RSI hints at potential near-term pullback pressure.
On the hourly chart, reflecting short-term fluctuations, gold rebounded from an intraday low of $4,374.69, with short-term moving averages briefly forming a bullish alignment. However, the MA5 and MA10 have now converged and flattened, disrupting the bullish structure and indicating fading rebound momentum. The MACD is turning downward above the zero line, with red bars narrowing and turning green, suggesting the DIF and DEA may soon form a death crossover, signaling increasing short-term bearish momentum and a potential pullback. The RSI has retreated from overbought levels to 48.4, hovering near the 50 threshold, indicating diminished bullish enthusiasm and a stalemate between bulls and bears. The hourly Bollinger Bands are contracting, suggesting reduced volatility, with key support concentrated around $4,358 per ounce—a resonance level with the lower Bollinger Band and prior lows. A break below this level could lead to a retest of the critical $4,300 support, while holding above it may result in continued consolidation.
In summary, while global central banks' gold-buying trend and de-dollarization efforts provide long-term support, the Fed's high-interest-rate policy is unlikely to change soon. Gold may need to undergo a period of consolidation before a substantial rebound can occur, pending renewed expectations of rate cuts. Short-term trading suggestion: Trade within the $4,350–$4,450 range, buying near $4,358 with a stop loss below $4,350, targeting $4,440. Sell near $4,450 if resistance holds, with a stop loss above $4,460, targeting $4,400–$4,390.