Goldman Sachs Raises Target Price for China Mobile to HK$94, Keeps Neutral Rating

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Goldman Sachs has issued a research report stating that China Mobile's (00941) first-quarter operating revenue this year increased by 1% year-on-year to RMB 266.5 billion, largely in line with the bank's expectations. This performance was primarily driven by growth in mobile subscribers and the expansion of computing and artificial intelligence (AI) services in the first quarter. However, the bank noted that China Mobile's first-quarter EBITDA declined by 5% year-on-year, falling short of its forecasts. Management emphasized that improving efficiency is a key focus for enhancing competitiveness. By rolling the valuation model forward to 2027 and updating EBITDA projections, the target price for the H-shares has been raised from HK$88 to HK$94, while the Neutral rating is maintained. Despite near-term pressures in communication services, Goldman Sachs remains positive on China Mobile's accelerated promotion of computing services, supported by robust growth in intelligent computing services and an expanding cloud video user base. Additionally, 5G base station deployment remains weak. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that only 49,000 new 5G base stations were added in March 2026, below expectations. This is anticipated to pressure the company's short-term 5G subscriber growth and ARPU expansion. However, the bank expects that specialized services will drive ARPU improvement, and the 6G cycle will support long-term growth. Goldman Sachs has raised its net profit forecasts for China Mobile for 2026 and 2027 by 2% each, primarily reflecting increased AI/computing service revenue, product mix upgrades, and improved EBITDA margins driven by enhanced operational efficiency.

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