The US spot Bitcoin ETF market saw approximately $1 billion in net inflows on Monday, with BTC surging above $87,000 for the first time in months.
According to Woofun AI data, the $998.95 million single-day inflow marked the largest since October 6, 2025, when $1.2 billion was recorded. The Ethereum spot ETF also saw $269.98 million in inflows, hitting a fresh single-day record since October 7, 2025.
Major institutional players led the liquidity surge. BlackRock (NYSE: BLK)'s IBIT took the top spot with $381.4 million in inflows, followed by Ark Invest and 21Shares' ARKB at $289.1 million. Fidelity's FBTC added $238.8 million, while Grayscale, Bitwise, and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS)-linked products also posted net inflows.
What is driving the rally?
BTC moved from $81,146 to $86,600 within a single trading session, a 7% jump. This price action was not driven by a single factor but by ETF demand combined with other market forces, reflecting strong institutional allocation intent in the short term.
However, warning signs of cooling demand have emerged. CryptoQuant analyst Ki Young Ju noted that the Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) premium has turned negative, suggesting a pullback in US spot demand after the initial surge.
To break through the $85,000-$95,000 resistance zone, BTC must rely on sustained ETF inflows to maintain upward momentum.
Technical turning point
On the technical front, BTC has reclaimed its 365-day moving average at $83,000, with the current price sitting above $84,000. This level has historically been viewed as a key boundary between bear and bull markets. Should this support hold, retail and institutional chasers may enter further, boosting market sentiment.
What could happen next?
In terms of outlook, Bitwise senior analyst Joe Consorti emphasized the importance of historical probability validation. Data shows that when BTC closes above its 50-week moving average, there is a 75% probability that the downtrend has bottomed. Excluding the COVID-19 pandemic black swan event, that probability rises to 100%.
"The bear market has been defeated," Consorti said, welcoming investors into the bull phase.
On Tuesday, BTC edged down 0.5% after Monday's 7% rebound, breaking the descending triangle pattern that had suppressed prices since early September. Current conditions show healthy consolidation with no reversal signs, as the price is merely retesting the prior breakout area. The Parabolic SAR indicator reads $76,269, well below the current price, confirming the bullish trend remains intact.