As anticipated, November saw Hong Kong stocks oscillating within a tight range. Last month's forecast—"Hang Seng Index likely to test the 25,000 support level, with 27,381 as the optimistic resistance"—proved accurate, as the index fluctuated between 25,178.63 and 27,188.81 without breaching either extreme.

**November Recap**: - Early-month gains were driven by optimism over the end of the U.S. government shutdown and progress in Sino-U.S. agreements. - Mid-month declines followed Fed rate-cut uncertainty, tech stock short-selling pressure, and geopolitical tensions sparked by Japanese official Takachi Naomasa's remarks. - Late-month stability returned after Sino-U.S. leader talks.

Sector-wise, banks outperformed, with major state-owned lenders hitting record highs. Biotech firms like **BEIGENE (06160)** and **HANSOH PHARMA (03692)** also surged. Solid-state battery stocks (e.g., **LOPAL TECH (02465)**, **WEICHAI POWER (02338)**, **GAC GROUP (02238)**) rallied on energy storage and anti-inflation themes. Consumer standout **ANJOY FOOD (02648)** posted strong gains.

**December Outlook**: - **Support at 25,000** is expected to hold barring extreme events (e.g., U.S. military action against Venezuela). - **Upside potential to 27,000** hinges on catalysts: - **Fed Rate Decision**: Odds of a December cut rose to 80% after dovish signals from Chair Powell’s allies. - **Policy Meetings**: China’s Central Economic Work Conference (mid-December) may signal stimulus (higher fiscal deficit, rate cuts, or consumption boosts). Rural Economy Conference could follow. - **Macro Data**: November industrial output (+4.5% est.), retail sales (+5% est.), and property figures (mid-Dec release) will sway sentiment. - **Currency**: RMB strength persists despite a robust USD, reflecting domestic momentum and foreign bullishness on Chinese assets. - **Wildcards**: BoJ rate hike (watch Dec. 1 speech) could divert JPY carry-trade funds to undervalued H-shares.

**Risks**: - **Geopolitics**: Taiwan Strait tensions linger after Takachi’s unretracted remarks. - **U.S. Tech**: Seasonal buyback strength may wane as big tech’s capex limits repurchases (**NVIDIA**, **Oracle** lag; only **Google** holds firm). - **Flows**: Active foreign outflows accelerated in November (EPFR); year-end portfolio rebalancing may spur volatility.

**Top 10 Stock Picks**: 1. **REMEGEN (09995)** – Biotech leader with robust pipeline (RC18, RC48) and nearing profitability. 2. **LEAPMOTOR (09863)** – EV maker with 101% YoY Q3 delivery growth and global expansion. 3. **TCL ELECTRONICS (01070)** – MiniLED TV sales up 153% YTD; North America leads premium shift. 4. **SINOHYTEC (02402)** – Hydrogen play amid policy tailwinds, though near-term losses widen. 5. **POP MART (09992)** – Global IP expansion (Labubu’s Halloween success) fuels growth. 6. **CHINACOMSERVICE (00552)** – Digital infrastructure backbone with 11.7% ACO growth. 7. **MGM CHINA (02282)** – Gaming recovery (147% of pre-pandemic EBITDA) with premium focus. 8. **CHINAGOLDINTL (02099)** – Gold/copper producer triples profit on price rallies. 9. **CHINA TOWER (00788)** – 5G infrastructure giant with REIT-like cash flows. 10. **UBTECH ROBOTICS (09880)** – Humanoid robot orders hit $90M, led by Walker S2.

**Strategy**: Rotate into policy-driven sectors (tech/consumption) and event-sensitive names (robotics, biotech). Book profits amid range-bound markets.