The F Samsung Crude Oil Futures ETF (03175) has surged more than 3% in today's trading session. As of writing, the fund is up 2.91%, trading at HK$9.18 with a turnover of HK$5.39 million.

This significant upward movement is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. According to recent media reports, Iran's foreign ministry issued a statement on July 8th. The statement declared that recent US military actions against southern Iran, combined with the US decision to revoke Iran's oil sales permits and violations of Iranian arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz, have effectively nullified key and fundamental clauses of the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict.

Adding to the market's unease, former US President Donald Trump, during a NATO summit, responded to related questions by stating that the memorandum with Iran "has ended." He further indicated that a naval blockade against Iran could be reinstated, along with the possibility of renewed strikes.

These developments have provided a powerful boost to oil prices. By the close of trading on July 8th, the main crude oil futures contract (2608) on the domestic market recorded a substantial single-day gain of 6.24%. Over the past two trading sessions, the contract has accumulated an impressive 7.5% increase.

The robust performance of crude oil has led to a broad strengthening in the prices of energy and chemical commodities recently. Analysis from Xingye Futures points to a significant rebound in China's crude oil imports over the past week, suggesting a turning point from previously subdued purchasing sentiment.

On the inventory front, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) shows a substantial drawdown in US refined product stocks, with overall inventory levels remaining at extremely low thresholds.

Market Outlook and Key Drivers

The overall market view suggests that Iran has already stated it will take necessary measures in response to the current situation. The future trajectory of these geopolitical events will be a primary determinant of how high oil prices can rebound from their current levels. The combination of supply concerns and renewed geopolitical risk is creating a volatile and bullish environment for crude oil and related investment products.