During the Asian trading session on Wednesday (December 10), spot gold traded within a narrow range, holding above the key $4,200 level at around $4,205 per ounce, though follow-up buying momentum remained subdued. The market widely anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting later today. However, this expectation has failed to sustain the U.S. dollar's recent rebound from late-October lows, indirectly supporting the non-yielding asset—gold.

Investors remain cautious ahead of the critical central bank event, while lingering geopolitical uncertainties from the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold. Yet, gold bulls appear hesitant, opting to wait for clearer signals on the Fed’s future rate-cut trajectory before taking action. Market focus now centers on the updated economic projections (dot plot) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference.

**Key Market Drivers: Gold Bulls Await Fed Rate-Cut Clues** The Fed is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut Wednesday evening despite persistent inflationary pressures. Recent U.S. Commerce Department data showed the September PCE price index remained above the Fed’s 2% annual target.

However, Fed officials argue that slowing hiring, moderate growth, and restrained wage gains could cool inflation in coming months, justifying further policy easing. Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected JOLTS job openings data (rising to 7.658 million in September and 7.67 million in October) did little to alter market expectations of a dovish Fed.

The U.S. dollar struggled to extend its rebound amid dovish expectations, lending support to gold. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Monday remarks—ruling out territorial concessions or painful compromises to end the war—added to safe-haven demand.

Traders await more clarity on the Fed’s rate path, with attention locked on economic forecasts and Powell’s presser.

**Technical Analysis: Gold Needs Break Above $4,245–$4,250 for Upside** Gold has oscillated within a familiar range for over two weeks. The overnight bounce from near range support favors bulls, but neutral daily oscillators warrant caution. A sustained breakout above the $4,245–$4,250 resistance zone is needed to confirm bullish momentum. Such a move could propel gold toward intermediate resistance at $4,277–$4,278, followed by the $4,300 psychological level.

Conversely, a drop below $4,200 may attract buyers near the $4,170–$4,165 support zone. A decisive break below this level risks a slide toward the $4,115 confluence support—marked by the late-October uptrend line and the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart. Further selling could accelerate declines.

(Spot gold 4-hour chart, source: YiHuitong) As of 14:25 Beijing time, spot gold traded at $4,205.59/oz.