GTJA Haitong has released a research report noting that hawkish comments from Warsh and an upward revision to U.S. economic expectations are pressuring precious metal prices through rate hike expectations. However, easing tensions in the Middle East and weakening inflation expectations are providing support. The long-term fundamentals for precious metals remain solid, signaling that the time for long-cycle positioning has arrived. For copper, macro pressure is easing marginally after the rate hike was implemented, with low inventory levels supporting high-range fluctuations. In rare earths, the near-term outlook considers the seasonal shift between peak and off-peak demand, coupled with the approaching National Day holiday, which is expected to gradually release downstream restocking demand. Over the medium to long term, the investment value of rare earths as a critical strategic resource remains highly favored by the firm. The main views from the report are outlined below.

Precious Metals: Fed's First Rate Hike with Hawkish Tone, Falling Oil Prices, and Precious Metal Price Consolidation

Last week, precious metal prices maintained a consolidative trend following the Fed's rate hike and a sharp decline in oil prices. Warsh's hawkish stance, alongside an upward revision to U.S. economic expectations, is suppressing precious metal prices through rate hike expectations. Meanwhile, easing Middle East tensions and weakening inflation expectations are underpinning prices. The long-term case for precious metals is robust, and the moment for long-cycle accumulation has arrived.

Copper: Macro Pressure Eases Post-Rate-Hike, Low Inventories Support High-Level Consolidation

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September to 3.75%-4.00%, largely fulfilling prior tightening expectations. However, Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, and elevated levels of the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields continue to limit upside for copper. The premium-driven effect of U.S. refined copper tariffs is also weakening. At the same time, the TC for imported copper concentrate continues to decline, increasing the willingness of some smelters to cut production. Domestic inventories remain low, and it is expected that copper prices and related stocks will maintain high-level consolidation in the short term. Key factors to monitor include the Fed's future rate hike trajectory, China-U.S. trade negotiations, and peak-season demand conditions.

Aluminum: Accelerated Domestic Inventory Drawdown, Prices Fluctuating

On the macro front, the Fed has implemented its rate hike, while Middle East tensions persist. On the supply side, Alba's operating capacity overseas has recovered to 1.3 million tons. On the demand side, aluminum processing operating rates continued to rebound last week to 61.9%, with the new energy sector providing a floor for industry recovery. On inventories, according to SMM data, as of last Thursday, domestic social inventories of electrolytic aluminum stood at 733,000 tons, a week-on-week drawdown of 63,000 tons.

Tin: Supply Constraints Continue, Demand Recovery Remains Weak

The resumption of production in Wa State is constrained by drainage and ore grade issues, leaving the tight supply picture for concentrate unchanged. However, domestic refined tin production has grown year-on-year, supplementing supply. Demand is primarily driven by bargain-hunting restocking, with AI servers and advanced packaging showing resilience but limited incremental gains. Tin prices are expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term. Key focus areas include Wa State's production resumption, Indonesian exports, and the realization of peak-season orders.

Energy Metals: Slower Inventory Drawdown Pace, Prices Weakening

Lithium carbonate production continued to rise last week, while inventories continued to decline. Due to adjustments in third-party data methodologies, the logic based on low inventories has weakened. On the supply side, the outlook for a major Jiangxi mine's production resumption is grim, with prospects for a restart this year unclear. Zimbabwean concentrate arrivals have already factored incremental supply into prices. On the demand side, expectations are poor, and the previous strong reality-based trading logic of low inventories no longer holds. For nickel, refined nickel inventories have seen some drawdown, while clarity on Indonesia's second batch of nickel ore quotas remains unclear. The nickel market is in a loose balance, and with iron ore prices weakening persistently, the nickel price center is expected to remain rangebound.

Rare Earths: Prices Fluctuating Sequentially

As of September 18, 2026, prices for praseodymium neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide stood at 729,000 RMB/ton, 1.445 million RMB/ton, and 6.625 million RMB/ton, respectively, with sequential changes of -2,000 RMB/ton, unchanged, and -50,000 RMB/ton, reflecting moves of -0.27%, 0.00%, and -0.75%. In the short term, considering the seasonal demand transition and the upcoming National Day holiday, downstream restocking demand is likely to be gradually released. Over the medium to long term, the investment value of rare earths as a critical strategic resource remains a strong conviction.

Strategic Minor Metals: Strategic Value Becoming Prominent

Tungsten: Commodity supply and demand are weak, but its strategic metal attributes are expected to strengthen sector trading. Domestic "Golden September" demand remains sluggish, with APT operating rates dropping below 70%, leading to proactive production cuts and inventory reduction. Tungsten prices are expected to remain weakly stable in the short term, but rigid supply from mines and export controls continue to provide bottom-line support. Additionally, on the equity side, more attention should be paid to the thematic elasticity from strategic resource revaluation, as market performance may outpace tungsten prices themselves. Uranium: The August long-term contract price for natural uranium stood at $96.5 per pound, up month-on-month. Rigid supply and nuclear power development create a persistent supply-demand gap, and uranium prices are expected to continue rising. Tantalum: Supply-demand mismatches support tantalum prices. Global tantalum supply is tight, and AI development is driving terminal demand. The firm expects tantalum prices to remain elevated and recommends monitoring capacity releases from leading companies.

Risk Factors

Downside risks include weaker-than-expected downstream demand, a large release of supply, and a slower-than-expected pace of Fed rate cuts.