Analysis of Hong Kong Stocks | Favorable Conditions Strengthen Exchange Rates, Market Blossoms, Pharmaceuticals Worthy of Exploitation

Stock News
10/15

【Market Analysis】The current stock market is witnessing a tug-of-war effect; following a lackluster rise in the US stock market yesterday, domestic markets began to strengthen today. The Hong Kong stock market gapped up and surged, closing with a gain of 1.84%, reclaiming a significant portion of its previous losses. The various countermeasures we have initiated in recent days are proving quite troublesome for the Trump administration. Efforts to soothe the market through various statements have momentarily stabilized the situation, but this does not indicate a resolution has been reached. The Federal Reserve is acutely aware of the seriousness of the issues at hand and has to step up to instill confidence. On Tuesday, Powell indicated that decision-makers would assess whether to further cut interest rates 「on a meeting-by-meeting basis」 and that the Fed might be nearing the end of its quantitative tightening policy. The implication is clear: ending the balance sheet reduction is a signal to commence quantitative easing (QE). The decision for future rate cuts will likely be driven by prevailing conditions rather than extensive deliberation, suggesting that rate cuts may be a consistent feature moving forward. Nevertheless, the US stock market still shows limited improvement, as the focus of contention has shifted to sanctions and counter-sanctions. Regarding countermeasures against rare earth elements, the EU is similarly facing challenges alongside the US, with reports on October 14 indicating that the EU is rallying the G7 to collectively address China's new regulations. Notably, Trump's recent tweet mentions a consideration to halt certain trade relations with China, including edible oils. The situation appears desperate, and it’s not a matter of sheer numbers solving the problem. Other countermeasures, including shipping charges, have substantial implications as well. According to a report from the Korea Yonhap News Agency on October 14, the South Korean presidential office indicated that the government has initiated trade communication channels with China to minimize losses incurred by Korean companies. Pressure must be exerted to ensure compliance. Moving forward, attention will shift to Europe, South Korea, and Japan and their responses. The current conditions are favorable for us, which fuels today's rebound. Insurance stocks, catalyzed by strong earnings, have become key drivers of the market, with 新華保險(01336) and 中國太平(00966) both rising over 8%. The Financial Times cited a central bank monetary policy official stating that there are solid foundations for medium to long-term exchange rate stability, which will bolster expectations and prevent excessive exchange rate adjustments. This morning, the RMB central parity rate rose to 7.10 yuan against the dollar for the first time since November of last year, increasing by 26 points to 7.0995. The offshore RMB also saw a significant rise. A strengthened exchange rate benefits the aviation sector. Additionally, in October 2025, international oil prices have continued to decline, with WTI crude oil futures prices dropping from $72 per barrel in September to around $58 per barrel, a decline exceeding 19%. Under this dual favorable effect, 東方航空(00670), 南方航空(01055), and 中國國航(00753) all surged over 7%. Yesterday, we discussed the 「Bay Chips Show,」 and while 新凱來 did not directly announce any news regarding lithography machines, it still surprised the market, with its subsidiary 啓雲方 releasing two proprietary domestic electronic engineering EDA (schematic and PCB) design software products. Additionally, its unit 萬裏眼 launched a high-speed oscilloscope. The former breaks through foreign software blockages, being fully self-controlled, while the latter is crucial for intensive technological industries such as electronic information, semiconductors, and integrated circuits, supporting the development of advanced processes like 3nm and 5nm. These two products are significant for domestic chip design and improving chip yields. Today, 華虹半導體(01347) and 中芯國際(00981) both rose over 5% and nearly 4% respectively; 建滔積層板(01888) rose over 6%, with 啓雲方's PCB design software achieving four times the automatic routing efficiency when processing 128-layer high-speed server PCBs compared to traditional tools. This is expected to drive high-end product demand for 建滔積層板. Recently, we mentioned investment collaborations among US giants, and similar trends are emerging domestically. 商湯(00020) has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with 寒武紀(688256.SH), focusing on the deep adaptation of the latest cloud inference chips (e.g., MLU370-X8) from 寒武紀 with 商湯’s 「日日新」 large model, jointly creating a full-stack service solution for the computing power market. Following this news, 商湯 rose over 5%, and 寒武紀’s A-shares increased nearly 4%. We look forward to more collaborations among major players to enhance valuation. On October 14, 京東(09618) announced a partnership with 廣汽集團(02238) and 寧德時代(03750) to launch a new energy vehicle, a collaboration model that pioneers the 「e-commerce platform + traditional automaker + battery giant」 all-chain collaborative innovation paradigm. According to the plan, the new car will be exclusively sold on JD during the Double 11 festival, with GAC responsible for the complete vehicle’s R&D and manufacturing, CATL providing batteries and battery swapping support, and JD integrating online and offline channel resources. This collaboration addresses market pain points: the new vehicle is positioned as affordable, with a range of 400-500 kilometers and ultra-fast charging compatibility, well aligned with the trend of consumption upgrades, expected to quickly capture a 15-25 million RMB market share. 廣汽集團 rose over 11%. It appears promising, but the key is whether they can produce a best-selling model. Yesterday, we noted a focus on the robotics sector, and today there are rumors that 特斯拉 has placed an order worth $685 million for Optimus linear actuators with the Chinese supplier 三花智控(02050). In response, the securities department of 三花智控 stated that the company is aware of the rumors and is confirming internally; if the news is inaccurate, they will issue a denial through official channels. Currently, the collaboration with 特斯拉 is progressing smoothly, but specific details cannot be disclosed due to confidentiality agreements. The stock price soared, and 三花智控 surged over 11%, while 微創機器人-B(02252) gained over 8%. In terms of budget arrangements for 2025, the ultra-long-term special government bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan were fully issued on October 14, focusing on infrastructure investment. This policy directly boosts market expectations regarding demand for building materials such as cement and steel. 中國建材(03323) and 海螺水泥(00914) both saw gains exceeding 7%, while engineering machinery stocks like 三一國際(00631) and 中聯重科(01157) rose over 5%; steel stocks also showed strong performance. With China having substantial autonomy over iron ore purchases, BHP has started to make concessions; our investments in African iron ore are also approaching production, meaning we no longer need to pay exorbitant prices for iron ore, and the profit margins for steel stocks are set to significantly increase. 鞍鋼股份(00347) and 馬鞍山鋼鐵(00323) both climbed over 7%. Consumer stocks are also responding positively to various stimuli. On October 14, 蜜雪集團(02097) saw its beer priced at 5.9 yuan a cup trending on Weibo. During the National Day holiday, 蜜雪冰城 announced a total price of 297 million yuan for acquiring a 53% stake in 鮮啤福鹿家. 蜜雪集團(02097) rose over 6%, boosting 古茗(01364) which gained nearly 7%; 遇見小面 has received approval for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, leading to positive performance among restaurant stocks like 鍋圈(02517) which rose nearly 12%. 海底撈(06862) increased over 5%. 【Sector Focus】The 2025 Annual Meeting of the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) is scheduled to take place from October 17 to October 21 in Berlin, Germany. As a premier global event in oncology, it is expected to showcase several significant clinical research findings, with major oral presentations by domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies becoming a focal point of market attention. Funds have already begun to position themselves beforehand. Related stocks include: 1. 科倫博泰生物-B(06990): ROP2ADC Lu Aikang antibody (佳泰萊®) has two Phase III clinical studies selected for LBA oral presentation, one of which will be featured in the prestigious Presidential Symposium. 2. 復宏漢霖(02696): Anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody H (斯魯利單抗) in combination with chemotherapy for first-line treatment of non-squamous NSCLC's Phase III study (ASTRUM-002) final analysis results selected for ESMO LBA oral presentation. 3. 康方生物(09926): PD-1/VEGF dual antibody Ivorinib (AK112) against Tislelizumab in a first-line study for advanced squamous NSCLC (squamous non-small cell lung cancer) registered Phase III study (HARMONi-6) has been selected for LBA oral presentation. 4. 榮昌生物(09995): Vedicimab combined with Toripalimab for first-line treatment of urothelial carcinoma's RC48-C016 Phase III clinical study selected for LBA oral presentation. 【Individual Stock Exploration】吉利汽車(00175): Profit Expected to Continue Growing, Historical Sales Record Set. Geely Holding Group reported a total sales of 2,953,452 vehicles in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 29% year-on-year increase; new energy sales reached 1,590,866 vehicles, up 68%, with a new energy penetration rate of 54%. Both total sales and new energy sales set historical highs. In the third quarter alone, sales hit 1,020,913 vehicles, a 28% increase year-on-year, with new energy sales at 588,110 vehicles, up 59%, and a new energy penetration rate of 58%. Comment: Geely Holding Group has crossed the million units sales threshold for the first time in quarterly sales, with the new energy penetration rate continuing to rise, maintaining strong momentum in its electrification transformation. The company is poised for even stronger performance as it enters 2025. In the first half of this year, Geely's operating revenue reached 150.3 billion yuan, a 27% year-on-year increase, setting a historical high for the same period; the company's core net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 6.66 billion yuan, up 102%. Overall revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are expected to continue to grow. Geely has raised its annual sales target by about 11%, increasing from 2.71 million to 3 million vehicles. From January to September 2025, Geely sold 2.17 million vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46%. Among those, new energy sales amounted to 1.168 million units, including 794,000 pure electric vehicles and 374,000 plug-in hybrids, which saw respective increases of 141% and 73% year-on-year. By brand, Geely brand sold 1.785 million vehicles, up 55%, Lynk & Co brand sold 241,000 units, up 23%, and Zeekr brand sold 144,000 vehicles, up 1%. Overseas exports reached 296,000 units, a decline of 7% year-on-year. The older models 001 and 009 from Zeekr, equipped with laser radar, are set to launch a 「Thousand Miles Vast H7」 assisted driving upgrade crowdfunding plan next month. Recently, Geely plans to initiate a share repurchase plan of up to HKD 2.3 billion, which, if successfully implemented, will solidify market confidence in Geely’s ability to navigate through industry cycles. With strategic transitions marking a new chapter, the new vehicle cycles for products under brands like Galaxy, Zeekr, and Lynk & Co are strong, and sales are expected to continue a rapid growth trajectory.

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