The head of the International Monetary Fund has issued a stark warning: "People have not fully realized that shocks have become the new normal for the world." She stated that the AI wave requires vigilance to prevent a repeat of widening inequality. Faced with geopolitical tensions, the IMF is struggling to find an anchor for stability.

Over the past five years, black swan events have shifted from being rare occurrences to a form of certainty in the global economic landscape. The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, stated that after a succession of multiple crises, the world has not truly built a system capable of withstanding persistent shocks.

"I worry that we have not fully internalized that this is going to be the norm," she emphasized. "We are not going into a world of no shocks."

Since taking office in 2019, Georgieva has had to contend with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tariff disputes, and the current conflict in the Middle East. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the IMF possesses a lending capacity nearing $1 trillion and is tasked with coordinating its 191 member countries to safeguard global economic stability.

She indicated that in the current environment, the IMF's most important tool is "objective analysis."

Regarding structural changes, Georgieva specifically highlighted the impact of artificial intelligence on employment and local economies. She believes the international community, including the IMF itself, previously underestimated the unequal consequences brought about by globalization.

"We, including the IMF, did not fully appreciate the backlash from globalization," she noted, further explaining that while the global economy as a whole benefited, many communities were weakened by job losses, and the related issues did not receive sufficient attention.

She made it clear: "I am very reluctant to see the same thing happen with artificial intelligence."

The IMF will update its World Economic Outlook in July 2026. Previously, in April 2026, influenced by the Middle East conflict, the institution had already downgraded its global growth forecast for that year. As part of its surveillance responsibilities, the IMF also conducts regular economic assessments of its member countries.

The issue surrounding the assessment of Russia's economy presents complex internal and external challenges for the IMF. As early as 2024, the IMF announced it would resume its annual assessment of the Russian economy, the first such arrangement since the outbreak of the conflict. This decision drew opposition from some EU countries, which argued that economic engagement with Russia could objectively undermine the effectiveness of sanctions.

Georgieva recalled that the situation was complex at the time, with "both sides still bombing each other," leading the IMF to decide to postpone the assessment. She also pointed out that conducting such an assessment requires access to data on trade, imports, and exports, but Russia has been uncooperative in providing this information.

She stated that "at some point, we will resume the regular assessment" in the future but did not specify a timeline.

Concurrently, the IMF continues to provide financial support to Ukraine. Since the conflict began, the institution has launched two assistance programs: a $15.6 billion program in 2023 and an $8.1 billion program in 2026, with these funds linked to key reform measures.