This week, Bitcoin is once again undergoing a dual test of macroeconomic risks and potential price reversal. Analysis suggests that although Bitcoin has recently shown some signs of price recovery, the combination of geopolitical tensions and the release of key economic data could still cause significant market volatility. Currently, a classic Bitcoin price indicator is on the verge of flashing its first bullish signal since last year. Following the last occurrence of this signal, Bitcoin's price increased by approximately $25,000 within two months, providing a historical reference for the market. It is observed that aggressive trading activity concentrated near the $70,000 level has already led to significant liquidations in the short term, with total liquidations exceeding $250 million, indicating a rise in speculative fervor.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has reclaimed its position above the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the weekly chart, while the MACD indicator suggests the prior downtrend may be gradually reversing. This technical development is considered significant not only for Bitcoin itself but also for its potential to influence sentiment across the entire cryptocurrency market. Historical data shows that after the last bullish MACD signal appeared in May 2025, the price surged from $94,000 to a new high of $119,000 within one month. Furthermore, the MACD transition to positive territory during the past two bear markets lasted approximately 245 days. By the end of April 2026, this cycle is expected to complete again, suggesting that long-term technical signals are gradually accumulating.
Geopolitical factors continue to weigh on market sentiment. As tensions between the US and Iran escalate, with deadlines set by former US President Trump for "Bridge Day" and "Power Plant Day" approaching, concerns are mounting over potential military action and the closure of strategic waterways. This uncertainty is seen as increasing investor sensitivity to risk assets. Concurrently, with oil prices surpassing $115 per barrel, there is potential for further upward pressure on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could subsequently influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Amid this environment of heightened volatility, Bitcoin still faces short-term downward pressure. The BTC/USD pair is currently trading near the bottom of what is considered the second bear flag formation of 2026, a pattern highly similar to the first bear flag decline of approximately $25,000 seen earlier in the year. Market observers suggest investors should monitor whether the market repeatedly tests these low levels, which would challenge psychological support and could signal the formation of a genuine bottom. A prevailing view among analysts is that new lows may be inevitable, urging investors to maintain caution and adjust their positions flexibly based on both technical indicators and macroeconomic developments.
In summary, while Bitcoin is displaying signals of a technical rebound, the interplay of macroeconomic risks and speculative sentiment renders its short-term trajectory highly uncertain. Investors are advised to remain vigilant for potential opportunities while closely tracking geopolitical events and economic data releases to manage risks and potential returns effectively.