According to informed sources, European Central Bank policymakers are leaning towards keeping interest rates unchanged this month, refraining from making a definitive judgment on whether a policy response is needed to the effects of the Iran conflict. The sources indicated that the currently tight financing environment is temporarily helping to stabilize inflation expectations, and that raising interest rates may not significantly alter market pricing. The ECB's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for April 29-30. However, data available before the meeting is insufficient to clearly assess the specific impact of the nearly two-month conflict in the Middle East on economic growth and supply chains, nor can it definitively judge whether the outlook for inflation returning to the ECB's 2% target has been materially affected. Furthermore, with peace negotiations still underway, there remains a possibility that the damage caused by the conflict could be contained. The sources also noted that the ECB's past experiences are being taken into account. These include its delayed response in 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine war triggered a record surge in inflation, and its被迫 rapid reversal of policy after twice raising rates during the 2011 European debt crisis. An ECB spokesperson declined to comment. Driven higher by energy costs due to the conflict, the inflation rate for the 21-nation euro zone rose to 2.5% in March. However, the duration of this increase largely depends on how long the conflict persists. Meanwhile, several governments and central banks have already lowered their economic growth forecasts, and businesses are preparing for a decline in end-demand. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated in an interview this week that the central bank needs to maintain "maximum flexibility" in its interest rate decisions but emphasized there is currently no inclination to hike rates. Nevertheless, investors believe rate hikes are difficult to avoid, with markets betting on two 25-basis-point increases from the ECB this year. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview on Wednesday that major central banks should resist the impulse to raise rates to avoid damaging economic output by tightening borrowing costs. Similarly, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel stated that the central bank need not rush into a decision to raise rates; Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau also emphasized that "it is too early to make a decision in April."