According to a research report from China Great Wall Securities Co.,Ltd., since 2023, overseas demand for solar and energy storage has consistently demonstrated growth and structural changes exceeding expectations. This trend is not a temporary fluctuation but rather a result of factors including grid parity for solar and storage, the dual-carbon transition, and lagging grid infrastructure development. Overseas demand has entered a phase of relatively stable and reasonable growth. However, the increasingly diverse market will place greater demands on manufacturers' abilities to expand market channels and rapidly develop compatible new products. Based on full-year export data, the firm believes 2026 will see a continuation of the trends observed in 2025. The ranking of segment growth prospects is Commercial & Industrial Storage > Utility-Scale Storage > Residential Storage > Solar PV. Companies with established early-stage layouts and strategic market positions are recommended for attention. The key views from China Great Wall Securities Co.,Ltd. are as follows:

Solar Cells and Modules: Overseas demand is stable with incremental growth, accompanied by a shift in product structure. According to calculations based on General Administration of Customs data and Infolink average prices, China's cumulative exports of photovoltaic cells reached approximately 116.2 GW in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 97.59%. Module exports totaled 267.1 GW, up 6.4% year-on-year. Combined cell and module exports were approximately 383.3 GW, representing a 23.7% increase, with cells becoming the primary driver of export growth. The overall supply situation in the PV industry chain remained loose in 2025, leading to cautious production scheduling by enterprises. Core factors influencing exports included changes in trade policies, inventory cycles, and corporate operational behavior. In Q1 2025, influenced by pre-deadline installation rushes, module manufacturers prioritized meeting domestic customer demand, temporarily delaying the delivery of some low-priced overseas orders. Quarterly module exports totaled approximately 62 GW, down about 10% year-on-year. As the installation rush period concluded, module export performance gradually recovered. In the key market of India, influenced by the fiscal year deadline for the ALMM policy, a significant shift towards importing cells began in April. In Q2, China's exports of PV modules/cells were 66.8 GW/25.07 GW, with year-on-year changes of -3.4%/+110.6%, respectively. Entering Q3, rising polysilicon prices combined with strengthened expectations for the cancellation of export tax rebates prompted module manufacturers and overseas distributors to actively stockpile lower-priced products. PV exports reached a peak driven by this supply and demand dynamic, with quarterly module/cell exports of approximately 76 GW/33 GW, up 30.1%/134.3% year-on-year. In Q4, China's PV cell and module exports remained resilient, with quarterly exports of modules/cells at 62.2 GW/37.2 GW, up 15.1%/103.7% year-on-year. This was primarily because domestic PV installations were still in an adjustment phase, leading manufacturers to focus their operational efforts overseas. With the formal cancellation of the export tax rebate now in effect, China's PV exports are expected to remain active through Q1 2026.

Inverters: Traditional markets recover, high-power products accelerate. In 2025, China's total inverter export value reached $9.042 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.38%, while the export volume was 48.706 million units, down 7.57% year-on-year. This divergence between decreasing volume and increasing value reflects shifts in both the market and product structure. The industry's main theme shifted from "distributed solar and storage in emerging markets" in 2024 to "recovery in Europe and Australia, simultaneous volume growth in commercial, industrial, and utility-scale storage" in 2025. The average export price for Chinese inverters in 2025 was 1,328.37 yuan per unit, up 19% year-on-year. Examining specific markets: European inverter inventory levels have normalized. Demand from traditional strongholds like Germany for residential storage has slowed, with new demand from ground-mounted power stations and commercial & industrial applications becoming the growth engine. New markets like Hungary, benefiting from EU funding, are becoming important increments offsetting the slowdown in residential storage in Western Europe. In Asia, markets like India and Pakistan are characterized by product upgrades, with increasing shares of high-power and hybrid storage inverters. New markets like Iraq are in a scale-expansion phase, focused on普及 basic residential models. Saudi Arabia and the UAE exhibit strong policy-driven characteristics, promoting solar and storage construction through top-level designs like "Vision 2030." In Africa, iterative upgrades in distributed generation in South Africa continue, while Nigeria has taken over as a key growth market. Large-scale projects in countries like Algeria are advancing with support from international financing and Chinese industrial assistance. Most countries in South America are still exploring technological pathways and industrial policies, leading to uneven demand release. In Australia, residential storage experienced a surge benefiting from the "Home Battery Scheme," and the adjusted new policy's subsidies are stronger and more sustained than expected, suggesting continued active local demand.

Risk warnings include risks of policies falling short of expectations, risks related to raw material prices, risks of project progress delays, risks of intensifying industry competition, and risks of trade friction.