On September 18th, the People's Bank of China set the yuan's central parity rate at 6.7521 against the US dollar, marking an upward adjustment of 59 pips. This represents the strongest level for the yuan since February 3rd, 2023, with the magnitude of this daily appreciation being the largest recorded since July 15th, 2026.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path remain split. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the current 3.75%-4.00% range during its October meeting stands at 44.6%, while the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike is slightly higher at 55.4%.

Looking further ahead to the December Federal Reserve meeting, the data indicates a 12.6% probability of rates remaining unchanged. Meanwhile, the chances of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase are priced at 47.7%, and the odds of a total 50-basis-point hike by year-end are estimated at 39.8%.