Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that with the continuous advancement of the coal industry's "anti-involution" and "checking overproduction" initiatives, the supply-demand structure of the coking coal industry chain is expected to continue recovering. Mongolia coal import industry chain profits are anticipated to be restored, and regional Mongolia coal import logistics supply chain companies have essentially completed dual pressure tests of business volume and performance in Q2, with Q3 expected to enter a bottoming rebound cycle. In terms of investment targets, the firm recommends Jiayou International (603781.SH) and suggests attention to E-COMMODITIES (01733).

Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd.'s main viewpoints are as follows:

**Coking Steel Industry Chain Prosperity Continues to Improve**

According to Mysteel data, from July to August 22, 2025, the daily average molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 2.4097 million tons, compared to approximately 2.348 million tons in the same period of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.63%.

Regarding prices, according to iFind data, from July to August 22, 2025, the average tax-inclusive warehouse delivery price of Shanxi-produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was approximately 1,521 yuan per ton, compared to the Q2 2025 average price of 1,336.91 yuan per ton, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.79%.

Benefiting from the continuous advancement of "anti-involution" and the coal industry's "checking overproduction" initiatives, the supply-demand structure of the coking coal industry chain is expected to continue optimizing, and profits for related players in the coking coal industry chain are anticipated to enter a recovery cycle.

**Mongolia Coal Import Bottoming Out and Recovering**

According to Mysteel data, from July 7 to August 23, 2025, the daily average clearance volume of Mongolia coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 133,300 tons per day, compared to 129,600 tons per day in the same period of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.84%. In Q2 2025, the daily average clearance volume of Mongolia coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 113,700 tons per day.

Benefiting from the recent recovery in coking coal prices, short-haul transportation prices from Chagan Hada stockyard to Ganqimaodu Port have risen to 63 yuan per ton.

**Risk Warnings**

Fluctuations in coking steel industry chain prosperity, significant volatility in coking coal prices, and geopolitical risks.