US-Japan Joint Intervention Imminent? "Mar-a-Lago Accord" Undercurrents Stir Amid Trump Tariff Chaos, Igniting Broad-Based Dollar Bearish Sentiment!

Stock News
01/26

On Monday, the US dollar weakened against most major currencies as investors debated potential US involvement in Japanese foreign exchange intervention, which could exacerbate the deterioration in market sentiment towards the global reserve currency. During the Asian morning trading session, the yen rose nearly 1% against the dollar, fueled by weekend speculation that Japanese authorities might be preparing to intervene to support their beleaguered currency, with possible participation from the US government. The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by as much as 0.3%, extending last week's 1.6% decline. For many dollar watchers, signs of US support for a stronger yen have reignited discussions about potential coordinated currency intervention—aimed at boosting US export competitiveness by depressing the dollar against the currencies of major trading partners. This perspective suggests that such an agreement would help US exporters compete with rivals like China and Japan. "The bigger signal is one of policy coordination," stated Daniel Bessar, Senior Vice President at Frontclear, adding, "If the market interprets coordination as a willingness to tolerate a looser global dollar environment, especially under a dovish Fed reaction function, it would reinforce near-term downward pressure on the dollar." Market speculation intensified further last Friday—traders revealed that the New York Federal Reserve had contacted several financial institutions to inquire about yen exchange rate movements; Wall Street widely believes these inquiries may quietly pave the way for a Japanese intervention operation with US support. Early last year, a research paper by Stephen Mian, a former Trump administration economist and current Federal Reserve Governor, discussing the deliberate weakening of the dollar, sparked analyst debate on the possibility of a so-called "Mar-a-Lago Accord" (named after Trump's private estate, hinting at a coordinated exchange rate mechanism similar to the 1985 Plaza Accord). The dollar posted its worst weekly performance since May last week, following a period of erratic US policymaking that unsettled financial markets—Trump first threatened tariffs on Europe to advance his plan to purchase Greenland, then abruptly abandoned it; on Saturday, he threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canada if it reached a trade deal with China. Risks to Federal Reserve independence and market expectations that Trump will pressure Powell's successor for rapid interest rate cuts continue to weigh on the dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen over 9% since the beginning of last year. In other markets on Monday, the price of gold surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time. Escalating geopolitical risks added momentum to the precious metal's record-breaking rally, further fueling the "currency debasement trade"—where investors flee fiat currencies. "When the US Treasury starts making calls, it usually signifies this goes beyond a regular FX event," pointed out Anthony Doyle, Chief Investment Strategist at Pinnacle Investment Management, noting, "Potential coordinated action would cap USD/JPY upside and make long dollar positions more vulnerable."

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