Pre-orders for Apple's iPhone 18 Pro series opened just two days ago, and shipping lead time data is already flashing a clear warning sign—outside of mainland China and Hong Kong, demand in major overseas markets is notably weaker than the same period last year. Meanwhile, early reviews of the foldable Duo have been positive, but the device's hardware shortcomings compared to Android rivals are hard to ignore.

According to a tracking report published by Jefferies on September 14, since pre-orders opened at 8:00 AM ET on September 12, shipping lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro Max in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Japan have shortened by 5 to 11 days year-over-year. The 18 Pro also saw significantly reduced wait times in all tracked markets except Hong Kong, with the U.S. already showing no wait at all. Analysts believe that, with production cadence roughly flat versus the prior generation, shorter lead times are a reliable indicator of softening demand. Jefferies maintains an "Underperform" rating on Apple with a price target of $263.66, implying roughly 21% downside from the current share price of $332.27.

Mainland China and Hong Kong are the exceptions in this pre-order cycle—lead times for the 18 Pro Max in these two markets extended by 4 and 7 days, respectively, versus last year. However, Jefferies analysts also noted that both markets historically see elevated speculative buying activity, and whether real demand is sustainable will need to be verified through secondary market resale price trends after the first shipments begin on September 18.

Delivery Lead Time Data: Clear Signal of Weak Demand

The Jefferies team systematically tracked delivery lead times across six markets—the U.S., U.K., Germany, Japan, mainland China, and Hong Kong—and added India to the tracking list this year, though year-over-year comparisons remain based on the original six markets.

Using midday ET data from September 14 versus the iPhone 17 series from the same period last year: the 18 Pro Max saw lead times shorten by 5 to 11 days across the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Japan compared to the 17 Pro Max. The 18 Pro already requires no wait in the U.S., and lead times in most other overseas markets have also contracted by 1 to 11 days.

Last year, the significantly longer wait times for the iPhone 17 Pro Max and 17 Pro versus the 16 series ultimately proved to be a reliable leading indicator of strong sales. This year's reversal leads analysts to take a cautious view on the 18 Pro series' sales outlook.

In India, the 18 Pro wait time is just 2 to 3 days, while the 18 Pro Max is around 12 days—both notably shorter than in China, making it difficult to interpret as strong demand.

China and Hong Kong Markets: Speculative Activity Complicates Signal Reading

Mainland China and Hong Kong are outliers in this pre-order tracking cycle. Data shows the 18 Pro Max has a wait time of 24.5 days in mainland China and 24.5 days in Hong Kong, both higher than last year's 19.8 days and 17.2 days, respectively.

However, Jefferies remains cautious about interpreting these figures. The report notes that both markets have historically seen active speculative buying of new devices, and part of the extended lead times may stem from channel stocking rather than end-user demand. Analysts believe that after shipments begin on September 18, secondary market resale premium trends will be the key metric for gauging real demand—if premiums narrow or even fall below launch prices, it would indicate speculative demand is rapidly fading once released.

Duo Initial Reviews: Software Experience Praised, Hardware Gaps Evident

Apple's foldable device, the Duo, is slated for pre-orders on October 16, and preliminary reviews circulating online are largely positive, but the highlights are concentrated on iOS's foldable adaptation experience, including smooth switching between inner and outer screens, native split-screen logic, app continuity, and dual-app multitasking.

Criticism, however, points to multiple hardware-level shortcomings: a limited number of floating windows, a maximum of two apps running simultaneously in multitasking (the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 supports three), and a lack of PC-like features.

A spec comparison with flagship Android foldables makes the gap more直观. According to Jefferies' comparison table, the Duo starts at $1,999, weighs 254 grams, and measures 11.3 mm thick when folded. The Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 weighs 201 grams, is 9.7 mm thick when folded, and starts at $1,899. The Xiaomi 18 Fold weighs 219 grams, is 10.68 mm thick when folded, and starts at roughly RMB 10,999.

On cameras, the Duo only features a 48MP main sensor plus a 48MP ultra-wide, with no dedicated telephoto lens. Samsung also uses a dual-camera setup, while the Xiaomi 18 Fold carries a triple-camera system with a 200MP Leica main sensor and a 50MP 3.5x optical zoom lens. In terms of processors, the Duo is powered by Apple's in-house A20 Pro (2nm process), while both Samsung and Xiaomi use 3nm chips.

Jefferies analysts noted that Apple has historically not relied on hardware specs to win market share, but at a price point above $2,000, hardware parameters could become an important factor in whether existing iPhone users upgrade to the Duo, and would also make it more difficult to persuade high-end Android foldable users to switch camps. Analysts stated that their overall view of the Duo has not changed since its launch.

Jefferies maintains an "Underperform" rating on Apple stock with a 12-month price target of $263.66, based on a DCF model through fiscal year 2031, using a 7.8% weighted average cost of capital and a 4.3% perpetual growth rate. The target price corresponds to approximately 30.0 times projected earnings for fiscal 2026.