Gold demonstrated resilience on Monday, August 17, with spot prices climbing 0.93% to firmly secure the $4,400 threshold, settling at $4,416.43 per ounce after touching an intraday peak of $4,428.87. Concurrently, December-dated U.S. gold futures advanced 0.8% to close at $4,473.70. Since the surprising weakness in August U.S. non-farm payroll data, gold has surged decisively from the $4,000 mark, delivering a rally that has captured significant market attention.

At first glance, a softer U.S. dollar alongside diminishing expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes forms the primary dual catalyst driving prices upward. However, several geopolitical undercurrents are introducing complexity. With the expiration of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, Tehran has signaled a potential shift toward full offensive posture. Washington has ruled out extending the ceasefire agreement, while former President Trump has issued threats regarding strikes on Oman. These tensions propelled oil prices more than 3% higher on Monday, creating a degree of caution among gold bulls.

The inflation concerns triggered by recent oil price escalation are quietly emerging as a double-edged sword for gold. While geopolitical conflicts traditionally serve as safe-haven boosters, the current environment may paradoxically constrain gold's upside potential by driving energy costs higher, thereby fueling inflation fears that could prompt tighter monetary policy responses.

Examining the technical landscape, the daily chart shows gold stabilizing and rebounding from the middle Bollinger Band, with prices consistently holding above short-term moving averages. Downward correction attempts remain limited, supported by a solid support foundation. Near-term resistance is clearly identified around the $4,450 level. The 4-hour timeframe reveals contracting volatility with the Bollinger Bands narrowing in a coiling pattern. Higher lows are forming a staircase-like bullish structure, indicating sustained upward momentum. The repeated pattern of dips being bought suggests no definitive weakening signal has emerged, supporting a buy-on-dips strategy as the core approach. Traders should avoid chasing rallies at elevated levels and instead await volume confirmation for continued strength.

For intraday trading, the immediate focus remains on the recent high near $4,450 as resistance. A decisive breakout above this level would open the path toward the $4,500 psychological barrier. On the downside, the $4,390 zone offers an attractive entry point for long positions, with the prior day's low around $4,370 serving as a critical reference. As long as prices maintain above this level, the bullish trajectory toward $4,450 or beyond remains intact. Should a rapid decline breach this support, the strong support at $4,310 becomes the key level to monitor for potential reversal signals.