Following last week's significantly disappointing non-farm payroll data and Federal Reserve personnel changes, whether the dollar can continue its rebound has become the market's biggest question. Additionally, this week requires attention to the impact of U.S. services PMI and earnings reports on markets.

**Last Week's Market Review**

Last week, Trump announced the latest tariff rates for most major economies, including 15% for the EU, 35% for Canada, 25% for India, and 39% for Switzerland. Beyond U.S.-China relations, the direction of Tariffs 2.0 has become largely clear. However, this did not shake market confidence until Friday's dramatic turn of events.

The non-farm payroll report showed rapid cooling in the U.S. job market. The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, below the expected 110,000. More concerning, May and June employment figures were revised down by a combined 258,000, with all data this year subject to downward revisions. Trump angrily announced the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director, the department responsible for releasing employment and inflation data. Economic data deterioration and credibility concerns led to a sharp decline in the dollar index and U.S. stocks on Friday. The three major indices ultimately pulled back from near historical highs for the week, with mixed results from last week's tech earnings.

The Federal Reserve maintained rates unchanged on Thursday as expected, but with 9 votes in favor, 2 opposed, and 1 absent. This marks the first time since 1993 that two Fed governors (Waller and Bowman) cast dissenting votes in a Fed meeting, both appointed by Trump, reflecting growing internal divisions within the Fed under "external factor" interference. During the press conference, Powell reiterated that rate prospects would be determined based on economic data.

The Fed's decision did not cause significant market turbulence. Another factor contributing to the dollar index's retreat below 100 on Friday was Federal Reserve personnel changes.

Fed Governor Kugler announced her early departure in August (she was absent from last week's vote), with her original term set to end in January 2026. This presents a golden opportunity for Trump, who has consistently hoped for rate cuts. The Fed's Board of Governors has seven seats, all permanent voting members. Trump will need to nominate a new governor to complete Kugler's remaining term (requiring Senate approval). Markets speculate this individual could eventually succeed as Fed Chair, or at least exert greater influence on Fed decisions in the near term. Current Chair Powell's term ends in May next year. The Fed's independence continues to face challenges.

Considering the economic data and personnel change factors, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has risen to 90%.

Non-dollar currencies were generally under pressure last week but rebounded significantly on Friday, with USD/JPY falling 2.2% to 147.40 on Friday. The Bank of Japan explicitly mentioned potential inflation risks during last week's meeting, setting the stage for continued rate hikes this year. Interest rate markets are betting on over 50% probability of a September rate hike.

Gold rose slightly for the week, closing at $2,363. WTI crude oil rebounded but faced resistance near $70, closing the week at $67. OPEC+ announced over the weekend a production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September.

**This Week's Outlook**

• U.S. July Services PMI — Tuesday 22:00 This is the most important data in this week's relatively light economic calendar, expected to rise from 50.8 to 51.5. Better-than-expected data could temporarily ease dollar pressure, but it would be difficult to truly resolve market concerns about data credibility.

• Bank of England Rate Decision — Thursday 19:00 Markets widely expect the BoE to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4% this week, though voting distribution may show significant divergence. UK inflation remains elevated at 3.6%, but higher unemployment rates are an issue the central bank cannot ignore.

• U.S. Earnings Reports Following tech giants' earnings releases, this week will see latest results from Palantir, AMD, Uber, Eli Lilly, among others. Additionally, attention can be paid to Toyota and Novo Nordisk, with the latter's stock plummeting 32% last week due to tariff war impacts.

**XAUUSD Gold 4-Hour Chart**

Gold is currently trading within a range of $2,270 (100-day MA) to $2,430 (previous high), with moving average alignment suggesting gold prices are at relatively balanced levels.

Considering the multi-faceted impacts of economic data, rate cut prospects, and Fed independence, the dollar index may continue facing pressure below 100, which is potentially bullish for gold. Friday's close formed a bullish pattern that may help maintain bulls' confidence in challenging $2,375 and $2,400 in the short term. On the downside, a break below the $2,330-340 area could lead to further correction of short-term overbought indicators, with gold potentially testing $2,300 and $2,270.

Gold's one-week implied volatility is 16.64%, basically flat from last week, suggesting gold prices will likely fluctuate between $2,283.99-$2,442.27 this week, representing a range of $79 above and below Friday's closing price.

**NASDAQ 100 Index 4-Hour Chart**

After Friday's decline, the Nasdaq approached the 200MA again on the 4-hour chart, with slight recovery in Monday's early session. Higher Fed rate cut probabilities should help the index mount a short-term rebound, with initial upside focus on the 23,000-23,200 area.

However, currently unavoidable is the preliminary reversal signal formed by the index on the weekly chart. If this week's rebound progress is unfavorable or even breaks below key moving averages shown in the chart, greater attention should be paid to the possibility of continued downward adjustment.