Goldman Sachs has issued a research report indicating that management at JD.com Inc (HKEX: 09618) expects third-quarter retail revenue growth to turn positive, driven by the dissipation of a high comparison base from trade-in subsidy programs. For the fourth quarter, the comparison base is expected to ease further, although average selling price inflation for electronics products could emerge as a variable affecting demand.

Goldman Sachs maintains its "Buy" rating on JD.com with a target price of HK$169. Management noted that supply constraints on high-end smartphones and PC chips are pushing prices upward. New Apple product shipments beginning in mid-October, roughly one month later than last year's iPhone 17 launch in mid-September, may imply a firmer September base but could benefit October performance.

Over the long term, the company continues to target double-digit growth through market share gains, marketplace platform expansion, and growth in advertising and services revenue. Regarding general merchandise, management acknowledged that growth slowed from consecutive double-digit rates to 5.6% in the second quarter, yet remains confident improvement will be seen from the second-quarter level.

Goldman Sachs highlighted that supply chain efficiencies, better category mix, and higher-margin services are expected to support further gross margin expansion. The brokerage projects operating margin to remain broadly stable, as gross margin gains are offset by a rising research and development expense ratio. According to management targets, JD.com's long-term retail operating margin is expected to reach high single digits.

On the food delivery front, the brokerage noted healthy sequential order growth, declining subsidies, and improved fulfillment efficiency.