Citi: Expects Hainan Duty-Free Sales Recovery to Boost CTG DUTY-FREE's (01880) Q4 Profit Improvement; Raises Target Price to HK$100

Stock News
01/09

Citi has released a research report raising its target price for CTG DUTY-FREE's (01880) H-shares from HK$72 to HK$100, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. Since the fourth quarter of last year, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales have demonstrated stronger-than-expected performance, accelerating from year-on-year growth of 13% and 27% in October and November, respectively, to a 55% increase during the Christmas period (December 18-24), and an 88% surge in the first week of this year. This robust growth is primarily attributed to new duty-free policies, wealth effects, promotional activities, and holiday concerts. The bank anticipates that Hainan's strong sales trend is likely to continue throughout the winter peak season, leading to a more positive outlook for the island's duty-free sales growth in the current year, with an expected year-on-year sales increase exceeding 20%. Citi has raised its profit forecasts for the current and next fiscal years by 5% and 6.6%, respectively, while lowering its full-year 2025 profit forecast by 6.3% to reflect the weaker-than-expected performance in the third quarter of last year. Citi expects that CTG DUTY-FREE's profit will show improvement in the fourth quarter of last year, driven by the recovery of its Hainan operations, and has initiated a 30-day period for observing potential positive catalysts. The bank will also closely monitor the sustainability of sales momentum during the winter peak season and the upcoming Lunar New Year Golden Week, which are anticipated to serve as short-term catalysts for the company.

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