As the weekend approaches, traders are growing increasingly concerned about escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, prompting a rise in oil prices. A significant deployment of US forces to the Middle East continues to keep markets on edge.

The price of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is nearing $67 per barrel, having reached its highest intraday level since August of last year. A source familiar with the US position revealed that the American delegation has left talks on Iran's nuclear program in Geneva, disappointed by the lack of progress. The United States, China, and several other nations have advised their citizens to leave certain parts of the Middle East.

Fears of a potential US strike against Iran have driven oil prices more than 15% higher so far this year, countering widespread market expectations of a supply glut. The current US military deployment in the Middle East is the largest since the 2003 Iraq War. This deployment was ordered by US President Donald Trump, who has given the Iranian regime a limited amount of time to reach an agreement.

According to data from prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a US strike against Iran before March 1st has surged significantly as of Friday morning: it stood at approximately 24% by late morning in New York, compared to just 9% at the start of the trading session.

Uranium enrichment remains a core point of disagreement. UN atomic energy inspectors have detected that Iran has continued routine but unexplained activities at a uranium enrichment facility that was previously attacked. If an agreement on this issue cannot be reached, the risk of the US taking military action is expected to rise substantially.

Traders will also be closely monitoring the OPEC+ supply meeting scheduled for Sunday, as the risk of conflict casts a shadow over the market outlook.

A report from Commerzbank noted, "OPEC+ may agree to a modest production increase starting in April, but geopolitical risks suggest that oil prices are unlikely to face significant downward pressure in the near term."