Zhang Chining, Investment Advisory License: Z0020302 Market Analyst

The Shanghai Composite Index has surged for eight consecutive sessions, decisively breaking through nearly four years of resistance levels. All three major indices have simultaneously refreshed their yearly highs, with trading volume surpassing the massive 2.15 trillion yuan threshold for the first time in 114 trading days. The once-dreaded 3,000-point quagmire has now become a solid foundation, reminiscent of the 924 rally's return. A-shares appear to be orchestrating a complete transformation with an index surge, each step reaching new historical heights!

1. Domestic "Anti-Involution + Consumption Promotion" Policies Energize Economic Circulation:

The government is implementing "anti-involution" measures to optimize economic structure, simultaneously deploying a three-pronged policy approach: consumer goods trade-in programs, personal consumption loan subsidies (covering both daily and major purchases), and service sector business entity subsidies. This combination directly addresses two pain points: unleashing consumer demand and alleviating corporate financing pressure, guiding long-term transformation of household savings into domestic demand momentum, upgrading economic circulation from "inefficient internal friction" to "quality improvement and demand expansion."

2. China-US Relations Signal Détente, Reducing Uncertainty:

China and the US have restarted economic and trade dialogue and begun adjusting entity list restrictions. Ahead of the summit between the two leaders, bilateral relations are trending toward stability and positivity, with frequent high-level interactions creating a constructive atmosphere. Additionally, reduced tariff policy disruptions have simultaneously boosted cross-border capital risk appetite, with global capital markets returning to normal trajectory.

3. US Inflation Cooling Strengthens Rate Cut Expectations:

Latest US inflation data shows cooling signs, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.2% month-over-month, below June's 0.3% and meeting expectations. Year-over-year inflation increased 2.7%, below market expectations of 2.8% and matching June's level. While core inflation rose 3.1% year-over-year (slightly above expectations), this primarily reflects service sector price resilience and doesn't appear to alter the overall disinflationary trend. Crucially, prices haven't shown unexpected acceleration, viewed by markets as a positive signal that further consolidates expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in September has risen to approximately 94.3%.

4. Incremental Fund Inflows Drive Market Positive Feedback:

Two-market margin balances have broken through the 2 trillion yuan mark for the first time in a decade (reaching new highs since June 2015), combined with July's new A-share account openings surging 71% year-over-year. Off-exchange retail investors and on-exchange leveraged funds are creating synergy, continuously injecting momentum for index breakthroughs, with trading activity and market confidence rising in tandem.

Market Performance

After breaking through the 924 rally highs, A-shares continued their strong advance toward a ninth consecutive gain today, with intraday action continuing upward repair toward the 3,700-point integer level, maintaining a solid upward trend. Domestic stock index futures moved higher in sync—the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have already led the advance and continued pushing higher, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 followed suit, extending their upward momentum yesterday and today respectively.

Taking the SSE 50 IH2509 main contract as an example, after yesterday's failed breakout resulted in a long upper shadow, today saw a direct upward reversal that not only completed the breakout and continued the uptrend, but also completely covered yesterday's upper shadow. Meanwhile, MACD showed a golden cross signal above the zero line. As the last of the four major index futures to complete its breakout, its short-term strength can be viewed as an overall directional indicator—if it maintains key support around the July 30 closing price of 2820, stock index futures overall trend may continue in a relatively strong pattern. However, caution is warranted regarding sector rotation risks, as after growth stocks' strong performance, short-term market style may tilt toward value stocks.

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