New data from Goldman Sachs indicates that inflationary pressures are spreading into sectors such as healthcare and finance, placing the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, in a difficult position. Amidst rising internal calls for interest rate hikes and significant market volatility, the Fed's policy transparency is undergoing a dramatic shift.

As global investors closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy signals, a recent research report from Goldman Sachs has sounded an alarm for the market: inflation is no longer just a temporary "pain" in isolated sectors but is showing a concerning trend of "broadening."

Although the current inflation performance has not yet repeated the extreme crisis of 2022, Goldman Sachs economist Jessica Rindels points out in the latest report that the breadth of price increases is widening significantly.

Rindels uses the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's most-watched gauge, as a benchmark, analyzing it through a multi-dimensional lens using a six-month annualized change rate. The research shows that if the average inflation level from 1990 to 2019 is set at 0 and the peak inflation of 2022 is set at 10, then the pressure index for categories with current inflation rates exceeding 3% has climbed to a level of "6" after adjusting for their weight.

This means that although the overall increase is not as high as the post-pandemic peak, the penetration of high inflation into various parts of the economy is strengthening. The data trajectory reveals that sectors such as audio-visual equipment, financial services, healthcare, and transportation have become the core drivers of this round of price increases. Notably, Rindels predicts that housing inflation, which carries significant weight, is expected to fall below 3% in the fourth quarter, potentially serving as the only current "safety cushion."

Goldman Sachs' data confirms the concerns expressed by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh during last week's congressional testimony. Warsh explicitly emphasized that preventing the "broadening" of price increases is his primary responsibility.

However, unlike his predecessor Powell, who tended to provide a clear "flight path," Warsh has ushered in a new era of silence. While stating a "zero tolerance" stance on inflation, he has refused to offer any clear guidance regarding the path of interest rates. Nomura Securities senior US economist Jeremy Schwartz notes that the Fed is moving away from its previous "hand-holding" market guidance model, and this unpredictability is unsettling Wall Street.

While Warsh remains silent, hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve have been growing. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has publicly advocated for a moderate rate hike, arguing that the current economic resilience is disproportionate to the inflation risks.

According to the latest Fed dot plot, a serious divergence has emerged among policymakers: nine officials anticipate at least one rate hike this year, with six of them believing there should be more than one increase. Former Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker went further, stating bluntly that Warsh should act swiftly rather than merely relying on verbal threats.

The market has already begun to adjust its expectations. According to CME FedWatch data, while a decision to hold rates steady in July is widely expected, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September has quietly risen to 52%. Influenced by this expectation, the 2-year US Treasury yield has been volatile recently, currently hovering around 4.18%.