Data observations from the monitoring efforts of Guangqi Research reveal a notable uptick in the national cement mill operating rate. According to Zhuochuang Information's tracking across 62 major cities, the average operating load for cement mills this week reached 35.78%, marking a sequential increase of 2.78 percentage points. The overall mill operating rate is on the rise, with the dissipation of widespread rainfall from the previous period allowing construction demand to recover, thereby driving a clear improvement in mill operations.

In the consumer sector, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide from August 1-16 totaled 399,000 units. This represents a 15% decline compared to the same period last year, but a 1% increase from the previous month. Cumulative retail sales for the year have reached 6.067 million units, a 13% decrease year-on-year. Additionally, the sales area of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities for the week of August 10-16 was 1.326 million square meters, remaining largely flat compared to the prior week.

Ferrous Metals: Seasonal Transition Underway

The easing of high temperatures and heavy rainfall this week marks a shift from the off-season to the peak season for the ferrous metals market. Steel terminal demand has shown a modest improvement on a month-on-month basis. National building materials transaction volumes rebounded, though apparent demand for the five major steel varieties declined, and inventories continued to decrease. Specifically, weekly building materials transactions rose by 15.46% sequentially, while total inventory of the five major varieties fell by 187,600 tonnes. This included a drawdown of 157,800 tonnes in rebar inventories and a 10,600-tonne reduction in hot-rolled coil inventories. Apparent rebar demand slipped by 106,300 tonnes, whereas hot-rolled coil demand inched up by 18,500 tonnes.

Hot metal output saw a slight decline this week, yet steel mills' demand for raw materials remains elevated. The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces at 247 surveyed steel mills eased by 0.19 percentage points to 89.25%, with average daily hot metal production falling by 5,200 tonnes to 2.3768 million tonnes.

Non-Ferrous Metals: Mixed Signals Across the Complex

In the copper sector, weekly operating rates for sample rod producers show a divergence. Refined copper rod operating rates climbed from 59.3% to 61.2%, while secondary copper rod rates dropped from 17.08% to 13.72%. Social inventories of refined copper increased by 17,700 tonnes week-on-week to 134,400 tonnes, with bonded area stocks adding 1,600 tonnes to reach 36,800 tonnes. Despite high copper price volatility, enterprises remain cautious about stockpiling at elevated price levels.

For aluminum, weekly operating rates across processing enterprises inched up by 0.1% to 60%. Segment-wise, aluminum plate and strip rates rose 0.2% to 69.2%, and aluminum foil rates improved 0.3% to 70.4%. Aluminum profile and wire rod rates held steady at 50.8% and 62.4%, respectively. Electrolytic aluminum inventories fell by 23,000 tonnes week-on-week to 875,000 tonnes, with downstream players showing a persistent willingness to replenish at lower prices.

In the zinc market, operating rates for downstream enterprises saw increases across the board. Galvanizing rates rose from 52.61% to 53.26%, die-casting from 41.84% to 49.46%, and zinc oxide from 51.08% to 52.33%. Zinc inventories across seven major locations increased by 6,100 tonnes to 270,400 tonnes. Terminal consumption remains subdued, with enterprises opting to procure during price dips.

Energy and Chemicals: Restarts and Rate Hikes

Supported by production resumptions and capacity ramping, operating rates at Chinese independent refineries are trending upward. According to JLC's calculation formula, as of August 19, the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit operating rate at independent refineries stood at 56.70%, a notable increase of 3.84 percentage points from the prior week.

In the PTA sector, the operating load reached 58.9% as of August 21, a sequential increase of 3.6 percentage points. Several unit changes have occurred: Formosa's 1.5 million-tonne unit resumed after a brief shutdown, Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million-tonne unit ramped up to full capacity, Jiatong's 3 million-tonne units experienced a temporary stoppage, and restarts at Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 million-tonne units and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 million-tonne unit remain delayed. As of August 21, polyester load in mainland China hovered around 80.7%, down 0.8% week-on-week. With some PTA restarts encountering hurdles and increasing load reductions in downstream staple fiber and bottle chip production, tightness in spot supply is expected to ease somewhat. Polyester operating loads are currently constrained by feedstock supply, and with the peak season approaching, the recent decline in polyester load suggests a near-term scenario of rising PTA supply and falling demand.

Agricultural Products: Pig Prices Steady Higher

In the agricultural sector, the national average pig slaughter price this week was 11.01 yuan per kilogram, up 0.39 yuan per kilogram from the previous week, representing a gain of 3.67%. However, this is still 19.40% lower year-on-year. Pig prices oscillated upward throughout the week, with a clear lift in average prices. Looking ahead, as the back-to-school season spurs preparatory stocking, consumption is expected to provide some support. Short-term pig prices are projected to maintain a volatile upward trajectory, with weekly average prices likely to continue climbing.

In the corn starch market, the industry operating rate came in at 58.22%, a decrease of 3.07 percentage points sequentially. Processing profits in Shandong stood at -211 yuan per tonne, widening losses by 12 yuan per tonne week-on-week. The combination of firm raw corn prices and deepening production losses for corn starch producers is providing effective support to current market prices. Additionally, with downstream replenishment cycles approaching and some producers scheduling maintenance, corn starch prices are expected to remain broadly stable.