Arbitrage Tracking: 1) Spreads: On November 28, the SC night session 1-3 month spread stood at -0.7 yuan/barrel (approx. -0.1 USD/barrel), while Brent 1-3 month spread was 1.30 USD/barrel, and WTI 1-3 month spread at 0.47 USD/barrel. The SC night session-Brent front-month spread was +0.80 USD/barrel, and SC night-WTI front-month spread at +5.32 USD/barrel.

2) Arbitrage: ① Valuation: At 2:30 AM on November 28, Brent 2602 futures traded at 62.74 USD/barrel, while SC 2603 futures were at 456.6 yuan/barrel. The theoretical price for SC 2603 was calculated at 478.4 yuan/barrel, indicating a -4.6% deviation. Based on a 7-day moving average valuation range of [-5%, 0], current valuations hover near the lower bound. ② Profit: The landed profit for SC 2603 futures was estimated at -24.75 yuan/barrel (-3.5 USD/barrel). ③ Spread: The SC 2603-Brent 2602 spread was 1.41 USD/barrel, below the theoretical spread of 4.91 USD/barrel. (Note: Last week’s Brent front-month was 2602; SC front-month was 2601, with "M" denoting December.)

3) Summary: Month-on-month, after a volatile month, WTI January crude futures settled at 58.55 USD/barrel, down over 3.38% in November. Brent January futures closed at 63.20 USD/barrel, declining 2.42% for the month—marking a fourth consecutive monthly drop. During this period, month spreads first fell then rose, while refined product crack spreads initially climbed before retreating, reflecting market uncertainty driven by Russian sanctions and U.S.-led Ukraine peace efforts.

For intermarket spreads, the SC-Brent cross-regional spread (7-day moving average) showed a retreat last week. A sharp freight rate surge initially supported a slight crack spread increase, but subsequent freight corrections reduced upward momentum. With winter demand season approaching, domestic demand may rebound, potentially lifting the SC-Brent crack spread. However, amid overall bearish oil price sentiment, caution is advised on spread-long positions.

Short-term outlook: Oil price trajectories remain fluid. OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical factors could alleviate oversupply pressures. Ukraine’s escalated attacks on Russian/Kazakh oil infrastructure may temporarily tighten supply, while escalating tensions in Venezuela reintroduce geopolitical risk premiums. However, potential progress in U.S.-Russia Ukraine peace talks next week may offset such premiums. With oil prices near annual lows amid intense volatility, the market faces heightened uncertainty—likely maintaining range-bound trading but warranting vigilance for sharp swings.