An internal analysis document from SK Hynix was accidentally leaked, revealing a severe supply-demand imbalance in the global memory chip market. The document indicates that, excluding HBM and SOCAMM, the tight supply of standard DRAM will persist until 2028—a more pessimistic forecast than UBS's previous estimate of Q1 2027.

According to screenshots shared last week by social platform X user @BullsLab, SK Hynix believes that capacity expansion for standard DRAM will face significant constraints. Supplier inventories are being depleted to minimal levels, while production capacity growth is expected to remain limited compared to previous upcycles.

The surge in AI demand is the core driver of this "super cycle." SK Hynix projects that the market share of AI servers will skyrocket from 38% in 2025 to 53% by 2030, fueling a robust 24% growth in DRAM demand.

This supply-demand dynamic will have far-reaching implications for the global tech supply chain. UBS previously forecasted that DDR contract prices would rise 35% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 this year, with a further 30% increase expected in Q1 2026. Tech giants like Apple will also face cost pressures, as their long-term supply agreements with Samsung and SK Hynix are set to expire in January 2026.

**Supply Constraints: Lengthy Expansion Cycles Offer No Quick Fix** SK Hynix's internal analysis highlights that the root cause of standard DRAM supply limitations lies in the prolonged capacity expansion cycle. New DRAM fabs take years to construct and ramp up, with additional capacity unlikely to come online until 2028.

Even repurposing existing facilities presents challenges. Whether transitioning from DDR4 to DDR5 production or converting NAND lines to DRAM, lengthy adjustment periods are required. This makes it difficult to alleviate supply shortages through short-term capacity reallocation.

Meanwhile, supplier inventory levels are plummeting. Kim Woo-hyun, SK Hynix’s VP of Finance, disclosed during the last earnings call that "not only HBM but also DRAM and NAND capacity for next year are already sold out, with some customers even pre-ordering traditional memory chips for 2026."

**Demand Surge: AI Fuels Memory "Super Cycle"** The explosive growth of AI applications is reshaping memory chip demand. SK Hynix expects AI servers to account for 53% of the market by 2030, up from 38% in 2025, driving a 24% increase in server DRAM demand.

The PC market is also feeling the impact of the AI wave. While total PC shipments in 2026 are projected to remain flat compared to 2025, AI PCs will grow from 38% to 55% of the market, significantly boosting per-device DRAM requirements.

NAND Flash demand is also rising. SK Hynix anticipates a 36% year-on-year increase in server eSSD demand and an 18% overall growth in NAND demand. Memory manufacturers are prioritizing investments in server DRAM and HBM, leading to relative NAND shortages and sustained upward price pressure.

**Extended Price Rally Ahead?** UBS previously predicted a 35% QoQ rise in DDR contract prices for Q4 2024 and a 20% increase for NAND Flash, followed by another 30% and 20% jump, respectively, in Q1 2026. SK Hynix’s internal analysis suggests shortages could last until 2028—longer than UBS’s 2027 estimate—implying memory chip price hikes may exceed market expectations.

Tech giants will bear the brunt of rising costs. Apple’s long-term supply deals with Samsung and SK Hynix, set to expire in January 2026, are expected to see price hikes from the Korean suppliers starting next year.

To address the imbalance, SK Hynix is aggressively expanding capacity. Its M15X fab, dedicated to HBM production, will open ahead of schedule and begin full-scale output next year. The company is also developing advanced facilities, including the Yongin wafer fab slated for H1 2027, to meet growing AI memory demand.

However, given the long lead times for semiconductor capacity, it remains uncertain whether these additions will timely ease current shortages. Investors should closely monitor memory price trends and their ripple effects across downstream industries.