While Bitcoin may be due for a short-term bounce, a well-known market analyst is warning of a more significant risk: a multi-year bear market beginning in 2027.

Alessio Rastani stated in an interview that Bitcoin could see a阶段性 rally over the next three to six months, but this would be followed by another deep decline. His long-term outlook is partly informed by the Elliott Wave analysis of资深 market forecaster Robert Prechter. This analysis suggests that Bitcoin completed a full five-wave upward structure when it hit its all-time high of $126,000.

According to Elliott Wave theory, after a complete five-wave advance, the market typically experiences a deep correction, retracing back to the area of the previous fourth wave. Based on this analysis, Prechter has derived an extremely bearish long-term target of around $3,500, which corresponds to Bitcoin's 2018 bear market low.

However, Rastani does not share this extreme view. Instead, he believes a more realistic downside target for Bitcoin by the end of 2027 is the $20,000 to $25,000 range. "I'm not as extremely bearish as Robert," he added.

The long-term bearish outlook does not mean Bitcoin's price will decline in a straight line. The analyst notes that Bitcoin is currently holding above a key support level, the 21-period quarterly exponential moving average, which could provide the foundation for a medium-term bounce. The critical downside support level is around $57,000.

He stated, "If Bitcoin breaks below $57,000 in the coming months, prepare for a significant drop." A decisive break below that level would open the door to the next support zone between $47,000 and $49,000, which corresponds to the 34-period quarterly exponential moving average.

For now, however, Rastani believes the current support will hold, allowing Bitcoin to stage a rally before the longer-term bearish structure takes hold.