On Monday, JPMorgan analysts issued a downgrade for Mapletree Industrial Trust shares, moving from an 'Overweight' rating to 'Underweight.' Accompanying this downgrade is a price target adjustment to SGD1.90, a decrease from the previous SGD2.50 target. The revision comes as the analysts forecast a potential decline in the trust's distribution per unit (DPU).

The analysts at JPMorgan anticipate a yearly decrease of approximately 4% in DPU over the next two years for Mapletree Industrial Trust. This projection is based on expected vacancies in the trust's data centers in the United States and Singapore, which could account for 5-6% of its revenue. The new estimates mark a departure from earlier expectations, which had predicted a recovery in FY26 DPU due to positive rental reversions and recent acquisitions in Japan.

Despite the trust having surpassed earnings estimates for the past three quarters and maintaining stable DPU performance for the first nine months of 2025, JPMorgan suggests these factors are overshadowed by the potential decline in DPU. The downgrade reflects concerns over the aging and smaller scale of Mapletree Industrial Trust's U.S. data centers, as well as the risk of obsolescence, which investors have raised as an increasing challenge.

The lowered price target and rating downgrade reflect a more cautious outlook on Mapletree Industrial Trust's near-term financial performance. JPMorgan's analysis indicates that the trust's current trajectory may not align with the more optimistic views held previously by the market and the firm itself. The report suggests that the trust could face further de-rating if it becomes more difficult to counter the obsolescence risks associated with its properties.