On May 29, international gold prices, as anticipated, retreated to test the support at the 200-day moving average before rebounding from the bottom to close higher. In addition to supportive buying, softer-than-expected PCE data, initial jobless claims, and overall macroeconomic cooling signals provided further impetus. The formation of consecutive rebound candlesticks on the chart also suggests a bias toward further recovery in the near term. As long as prices do not close below the support of the 200-day moving average, the outlook remains bullish for a rebound, with potential to test resistance levels above $4600 again.
On May 29, gold opened higher in the Asian session at $4461.57 per ounce, then retreated and declined continuously, hitting an intraday low of $4366.52 during the midday session. After finding support, prices reversed upward, gaining momentum after the U.S. market opened. The rally extended into the midnight session, reaching an intraday high of $4516.26. Momentum subsequently slowed, with prices fluctuating narrowly and weakly to close at $4495.32. The daily trading range was $149.74. Compared to Wednesday's closing price of $4455.88, gold gained $39.44, a rise of 0.89%.
Looking ahead to Friday, May 29, international gold opened with narrow, weak fluctuations, facing resistance from short-term moving averages. However, this pressure is expected to be limited, with underlying buying support remaining robust. Currently, geopolitical tensions remain in a stalemate with uncertain prospects, keeping gold prices in a phase of overall consolidation.
From a short-term directional perspective, risks have intensified somewhat. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, indicated that inflationary pressures were not as severe as anticipated. This has tempered expectations for further interest rate hikes and revived market expectations for potential Fed rate cuts within the year. Additionally, the second revision of Q1 GDP showed the U.S. Commerce Department downgrading the growth rate from an initial 2.0% to 1.6%. The slower-than-expected economic growth reduces the necessity for the Fed to maintain high interest rates. Coupled with a rise in weekly initial jobless claims, signaling marginal cooling in the labor market, these factors further support market expectations for a shift in Fed policy. Collectively, they heighten recession risks and rate cut expectations for the U.S. economy over the next year, which should bolster gold prices to continue their rebound.
Technically, on the monthly chart, gold prices are trading below the 5-month moving average, indicating weakness. A close below the support of the 10-month moving average at $4370 could lead to a further decline toward $4100 or even the $3800 mark. Conversely, a close back above the 5-month moving average at $4800 could signal a resumption of the bull market. Currently, prices continue to fluctuate above the support of the trendline, suggesting expectations for sideways consolidation and potential renewed strength in the future. This outlook is maintained for now.
On the weekly chart, gold prices have rebounded as anticipated after touching the support of the rising trendline. A potential bottoming and bullish reversal signal is forming. If this signal holds through this week's close, the bias for next week leans toward consolidation or a continued rebound. However, a sustained move back above $5000 would require breaking above the resistance of the middle Bollinger Band.
On the daily chart, gold has rebounded after touching the bottom support of the recent consolidation range. In the short term, this rebound is expected to continue, potentially testing targets above $4600, while monitoring resistance from the 60-day or 100-day moving averages. Support and buying interest around the 200-day moving average will continue to be watched.
For specific intraday trading guidance, refer to real-time account information.
Preliminary intraday trading level references are as follows (specific entry and exit points are subject to real-time account notifications): Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4450 or $4400; Resistance levels are around $4550 or $4600. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $74.30 or $73.00; Resistance levels are around $77.40 or $78.60.