Macquarie has released a research report adjusting its rating for Li Auto-W (ASX: 02015).

The firm has raised its stock rating from Underperform to Neutral. However, it has also reduced its 2026 fiscal year sales forecast by 12% due to concerns about a potential slowdown in demand for new models. The bank has revised its net loss per share forecast to RMB 0.32, compared to a prior forecast for earnings per share of RMB 0.63.

Consequently, Macquarie has lowered its H-share price target by 3%, from HK$59 to HK$57. The price target for Li Auto's US-listed shares (LI.US) remains unchanged at US$15, with foreign exchange factors cited as the reason for the disparity.

The report noted that Li Auto's automotive gross margin for the first quarter of this year was in the single digits as expected. However, quarterly deliveries remained solid, supported by a recovery in sales of the i6 battery electric vehicle (BEV).

Macquarie expects profitability to improve in the second quarter. This anticipated improvement is based on the expectation that the sales mix will shift toward models with higher average selling prices (ASPs), such as the L9 and the new L8, as the proportion of i6 BEV sales declines.

The report also mentioned that Li Auto's first-quarter net loss was RMB 2.1 billion, which still surpassed both market and Macquarie's own expectations. Management has raised its sales target for the 2026 fiscal year by 20%. This increase is primarily attributed to the planned launch of the new L8 in late June, followed by the new L7 in the second half of the year.

Macquarie believes the first quarter of this year likely represents the low point for Li Auto's performance, with recent fundamentals expected to have bottomed out and begun a recovery.