On Monday, November 13, oil prices held steady as Washington neared the end of a 40-day government shutdown, providing some support to demand expectations. However, the market remained weighed down by signals of oversupply and lingering uncertainties. Analysts suggest that the oil market may continue its volatile trend in the short term, with investors advised to monitor policy developments affecting fuel demand.
At 1:42 PM ET, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.40% to $59.99 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 0.56% to $63.92. Murban crude traded at $66.25, while U.S. natural gas declined 0.35% to $4.330 per million Btu.
Reports indicate that the U.S. Senate advanced a funding bill late Sunday, potentially reopening federal agencies and resuming delayed data releases. Analysts note that this could temporarily boost fuel demand as transportation activity gradually normalizes post-shutdown. However, while policy-driven demand improvements may offer short-term support, persistent supply pressures remain a key market concern.
Global crude benchmarks have fallen nearly 15% since mid-September, pressured by rising non-OPEC output and slower-than-expected refinery demand recovery. Data shows October crude imports averaged around 11.39 million barrels per day, higher than September levels.
Despite Monday's optimistic market performance, traders remain cautious. Reports show Asian floating storage has doubled since October, while U.S. inventories have risen for four consecutive weeks, signaling ongoing supply pressure. OPEC+ has refrained from deeper cuts ahead of 2026, maintaining discipline but showing limited appetite for further supply tightening.
Demand recovery remains uneven, with thousands of flight cancellations during the shutdown curbing jet fuel consumption, potentially impacting November refinery margins.
A weaker U.S. dollar and improved global risk sentiment provided some support to oil prices, but macroeconomic uncertainty persists due to delayed data releases. Analysts expect Brent crude to hover near the $60 level, with most predicting range-bound trading unless stronger demand catalysts or new supply disruptions emerge. Investors are advised to closely track inventory trends, policy shifts, and demand recovery progress as key drivers of future price movements.