At the China Development Forum 2026, held in Beijing from March 22 to 23, Professor Michael Kremer from the University of Chicago, a recipient of the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics, presented two research and policy design methods he helped develop. Speaking at a seminar focused on the "Healthy China 2030" initiative and the broader health industry, Kremer proposed applying these methods to advance the goals of "Healthy China 2030" and shared insights on combining them to drive the development of AI solutions in proactive health.
Kremer outlined the first method as applying experimental approaches and randomized controlled trials (RCT) to policy research. The second method involves using market-shaping strategies to incentivize research and development in areas where commercial incentives are insufficient to meet societal needs. He noted that these approaches have been widely applied internationally to various policy issues and expressed hope that by supporting proactive population health—rather than relying solely on pharmaceutical R&D—they could contribute to achieving the "Healthy China 2030" objectives.
Regarding randomized controlled trials (RCT), Kremer pointed out that this methodology has long been used in medicine to test new drugs, vaccines, and policy allocation effects, allowing for comparative analysis of outcomes in health, economics, education, and other fields. He cited the example of a universal flu vaccine that won a major award in 2019 due to its novel trial methodology, noting that the AB testing commonly used by technology companies is similar in principle, with both focusing on continuous improvement to enhance product quality. This approach aligns with China's policy pilot reform philosophy, though RCT includes an additional step to ensure similarity between pilot and control groups, thereby eliminating confounding factors and increasing scientific rigor.
On market-shaping methods, Kremer explained that they work by enhancing market commitments, such as advance purchase commitments for R&D, to spur innovation in areas with weak commercial incentives. For China, he recommended applying this approach to fields like universal flu vaccines and novel nasal spray or patch-based vaccines, suggesting that if new technologies prove effective, the government could provide funding support.
Kremer also emphasized that exploring new uses for generic drugs is a significant pathway for market shaping. He illustrated this with the example of aspirin, originally a pain reliever, which was later found to treat cardiovascular diseases, saving tens of millions of lives. He proposed that medical insurance authorities could use incentive mechanisms to encourage companies to test new applications for generic drugs, creating a win-win scenario where companies profit, insurance costs are reduced, and public health improves. This approach could also promote the R&D and testing of proactive health-related applications, supporting the achievement of goals in the upcoming five-year plan.