The market's attention is on the upcoming release of the US weekly ADP employment change data.

On July 7th, at 20:15 Beijing Time, Automatic Data Processing Inc will publish the weekly ADP employment change figure for the period ending June 20th. The previous value showed an increase of 30,750 individuals, with no current market consensus available.

Recent Performance of ADP Data

Over the past six months, the trajectory of the US weekly ADP data can be segmented into three distinct phases. The initial phase, spanning from the week of February 7th to the week of March 21st, saw figures fluctuating between 9,000 and 26,000, indicating a soft labor market. The second phase, covering the weeks from March 28th to May 2nd, recorded numbers ranging from 30,250 to 40,250, reflecting a period of market instability. Currently, in the third phase starting the week of May 9th, the data has trended between 26,500 and 35,700, signaling a pronounced and rapid decline in employment growth.

The most recent figure of 30,750 for the week of June 6th, while higher than the preceding 26,500, does not signify a reversal of the downward trend established since May. This suggests the US labor market remains in a fragile state, warranting a cautious outlook rather than excessive optimism.

Comparing ADP with Non-Farm Payrolls

The weekly ADP data series, initiated in September 2025, has a history of less than one year. By overlaying this data with the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figures, one can assess their correlation. The available chart indicates that weekly ADP data exhibits significantly higher volatility compared to the NFP series. The NFP curve displayed a clear bottoming pattern in February of this year, a characteristic not mirrored in the concurrent weekly ADP data. Instead, a notable low point in the ADP series appeared during the week of November 8th, 2025. Overall, the reliability of using weekly ADP data to forecast the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report is considered relatively low.

Understanding the Data's Limitations

It is important to note that the weekly ADP release operates on a two-week lag and is published three times per month, with no weekly data issued alongside the monthly ADP National Employment Report. The calculation of the weekly ADP figure involves estimating the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average, which introduces a degree of estimation and is not derived from direct, objective data collection. Therefore, when utilizing ADP data to analyze the US employment landscape, it is crucial to incorporate other labor market indicators for a comprehensive comparative analysis to avoid drawing inaccurate conclusions.