Global merger and acquisition deal value, after experiencing a sharp decline in the weeks following the outbreak of the Iran conflict, has now steadily recovered. Despite ongoing market volatility, companies and investors are choosing to overlook the disruptions and continue advancing major M&A transactions. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) indicates that the value of deals announced globally plummeted to approximately $39 billion in the second week of March, a drop triggered by market turbulence following strikes by the US and Israel on Iran. This marked the lowest weekly deal value since the "Liberation Day" last April when the US announced comprehensive tariffs.

However, driven by a series of mega-deals, global transaction values have since rebounded. These deals include Pershing Square's proposed $68 billion acquisition of Universal Music Group and McCormick's planned $45 billion merger with the food business of Unilever. Data shows that in the four weeks starting March 15, the average weekly value of global M&A deals rose to about $117 billion, surpassing the average weekly levels of approximately $93 billion seen in January and February.

Guillermo Baygual, Co-Head of Global M&A at Citigroup, stated, "While CEO confidence has dipped slightly, the importance and logic behind these corporate transactions remain." He added, "Geopolitical dynamics introduce some short-term uncertainty, but in the long run, they further demonstrate the need for companies to achieve scale, cost efficiency, and financing capacity to meet near-compulsory capital expenditure demands and pursue further growth."

Deal values are recovering, though some regions have been more severely impacted by the turmoil. So far in 2026, the total value of M&A involving targets in the Gulf region is nearly $15 billion. Although the number of deals announced increased by 5%, the total value fell by 65% compared to the same period last year. LSEG data shows 70 deals were announced in the Gulf region in February, a monthly count only reached once in the past five years. However, after the conflict began in March, only 37 deals were announced, the lowest monthly figure since August 2025.

Conversely, Gulf entities have been active as buyers. In the six weeks following the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28, the value of M&A transactions initiated by Gulf entities reached $17.1 billion. This represents a 244% increase compared to the six weeks prior to the conflict's onset, though it is 21% lower than the same period in 2025.

Despite a decline in the global number of deals, companies are still pursuing large, transformative transactions. Nimesh Koria, Co-Head of EMEA M&A at Goldman Sachs, noted that the number of smaller deals has decreased due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop. He believes the recovery in the M&A market is being driven by large deals that have been in preparation for a long time. Koria added, "Large deals typically have been in the works for some time and are not a reaction to the Middle East conflict."

Furthermore, LSEG data shows that nearly $50 billion in Equity Capital Markets (ECM) transactions were completed globally in the two weeks following the outbreak of the conflict, after which the pace slowed. As of April 14th, global ECM deal volume for the year reached $215 billion, a 37% increase year-on-year. Three equity advisors previously revealed that the first week after the attacks was the most active week for fundraising this year, as some companies and their shareholders approached equity investors ahead of potential further market deterioration or constrained financing ability.

Data indicates that in the four weeks starting March 15, the average weekly global ECM transaction value was about $11 billion, lower than the $13 billion in January and $18 billion in February. One advisor noted that the decline in deal value was partly due to a slowdown in new listings prompted by the war, coupled with a typical seasonal lull as companies entered their earnings reporting period.

Market conditions suggest the potential for more deals to return remains. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged following the conflict in late February but had fallen below 20 by April. Traders view an index level below 20 as indicative of stabilizing market conditions with reduced stress.

Philip Beck, Head of EMEA M&A at UBS Group, said, "Volatility has affected the pace of deals in some cases, but it hasn't fundamentally altered strategic intent, particularly for large, well-capitalized transactions."

The long-term impact, however, remains to be seen. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned this week that the global economy could teeter on the brink of recession if the conflict worsens. Citi's Baygual commented, "If we enter a recessionary environment, people will need to run more scenario analyses, which might delay some deals slightly. But similarly, I believe the next three years will be a period of very strong activity, as the fundamental drivers for M&A that have been in place since last year remain solid."