Hammack Sends Hawkish Signal: Inflation Won't Fall on Its Own, Multiple Rate Hikes May Be Needed

Deep News
08/11

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack stated that multiple interest rate hikes may be required to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% target, but she declined to prejudge the exact number of hikes ultimately needed.

In an interview on Monday, Hammack remarked: "Overall, I think a single 25-basis-point rate hike likely wouldn't have a significant impact on the economy. Therefore, several rate increases may be necessary. However, I don't want to prejudge that exact number."

Hammack was one of three dissenting officials who supported a rate hike during the Fed's decision to hold rates steady last month. In a statement following the meeting, the Cleveland Fed president said that the longer high inflation persists, the more difficult it becomes to push it back down.

In Monday's interview, Hammack also noted that the current interest rate level is not posing a "meaningful constraint" on the economy, and she does not believe inflation will fall back to the target on its own, nor does she see any issues in the labor market.

Two weeks ago, the Fed announced it would keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%. At that time, three committee members, including Hammack, voted against the decision, favoring a 25-basis-point rate hike at the meeting.

Last week, Fed "third-in-command" John Williams said the current interest rate is in a "good place," expecting inflation to cool in the second half of the year, adding that the Fed does not need to rush to adjust rates.

According to CME Group's FedWatch data, the market is pricing a 51.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September; for October, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 14.9%, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 50.7%, and the probability of no change is 34.4%.

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