Cinda Securities released a research report highlighting its recommendations in the express delivery sector. For the direct-operation model, it favors S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd. (002352.SZ), citing optimism over the company's operational and cash flow inflection points, which are expected to usher in a new growth phase. Under the franchise model, amid the industry's "anti-involution" push, listed companies have seen significant sequential improvements in per-parcel pricing, coupled with peak-season volume growth, leading to potential earnings recovery. Since 2025, market differentiation has accelerated, with leading firms gaining share. The report recommends ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057) and YTO Express (600233.SH).
**Key Insights:** 1. **Volume Trends:** - November express delivery volume grew 5.0% YoY. S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd. saw a sequential slowdown due to business optimization, while STO Express's acquisition of Daniao boosted scale. - E-commerce retail sales for Jan-Nov totaled RMB 11.82 trillion (+5.7% YoY), outpacing overall retail growth by 1.7 percentage points. Online penetration dipped slightly to 25.9%, while average parcel value fell 12.9% to RMB 65.4. - Jan-Nov express volume hit 180.74 billion parcels (+14.9% YoY), with November at 18.06 billion (+5.0%).
2. **Company Performance:** - November volumes: YTO (2.886B), STO (2.502B), Yunda (2.175B), S.F.Holding (1.534B). Growth rates: S.F.Holding (20.13%) > STO (14.67%) > YTO (13.55%) > Yunda (-4.19%). S.F.Holding’s average price rose RMB 0.29 sequentially, shifting focus from scale to value, aiding margin recovery. - Jan-Nov cumulative volumes: YTO (28.26B), STO (23.637B), Yunda (23.453B), S.F.Holding (15.158B). Growth: S.F.Holding (27.25%) > YTO (18.10%) > STO (15.43%) > Yunda (9.27%). - Market shares: YTO (15.6%), STO (13.1%), Yunda (13.0%), S.F.Holding (8.4%). YoY changes: S.F.Holding (+0.8ppt), YTO (+0.4ppt), STO (+0.1ppt), Yunda (-0.7ppt).
3. **Pricing Trends:** - Industry-wide November average price rose 1.9% MoM to RMB 7.62 (-8.3% YoY). Cumulative Jan-Nov price was RMB 7.50 (-6.8% YoY). "Anti-involution" measures since August lifted prices by RMB 0.27 vs. July. - Company-level: S.F.Holding’s price rose RMB 0.29 MoM; STO gained RMB 0.23 post-Daniao merger. November prices: S.F.Holding (RMB 13.47), YTO (RMB 2.24), STO (RMB 2.41), Yunda (RMB 2.16).
**Outlook & Risks:** - E-commerce express volumes remain resilient, supported by livestreaming-driven growth and fragmented consumption. The "anti-involution" campaign has stabilized pricing, with further industry differentiation expected. - Risks: Weak e-commerce demand, intensified price competition, and franchisee instability.