On Thursday, April 9, international gold prices reversed course from the previous day's decline, closing higher. Hopes for peace talks between Israel and Lebanon, alongside a fragile truce in the Gulf region, eased crude oil bullishness and inflation expectations, thereby supporting gold. Although the price held above the 100-day moving average support, it remained within the upper shadow of Wednesday's retreat and below the resistance of the 60-day moving average. Consequently, until the 60-day moving average is breached, risks of consolidation or further declines persist.

In specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $2,722.06 per ounce, trading within a $30 range and initially hitting a low of $2,698.69. The European session then saw a rebound that extended into the latter part of the U.S. session, reaching a high of $2,800.74 before encountering resistance and pulling back to close at $2,765.49. The day's trading range was $102.05, with a gain of $43.43, or 0.92%.

Looking ahead to Friday, April 10, the upward momentum in gold has slowed at the open, with a weaker bias in early trading due to the pullback from the previous session's close. Additionally, Putin's announcement of a 32-hour ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, which Ukraine agreed to follow, has reduced safe-haven demand, limiting gold's gains.

However, trading is expected to remain weak intraday ahead of the release of the U.S. March CPI data in the evening. Driven by higher oil prices from the Iran conflict, the CPI is forecast to rise by approximately 1%, which would be the largest monthly increase since 2022. This could dampen expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, weighing on gold prices.

Nevertheless, with geopolitical tensions easing and a focus on ceasefire talks, oil prices have retreated significantly. Iran's deputy foreign minister stated the Strait of Hormuz remains open but requires coordination for passage. U.S. media reports suggest the U.S. government may extend sanctions waivers for Russian oil this week, potentially paving the way for exemptions on Iranian oil.

Therefore, if the data meets expectations, the market reaction is likely to be temporary, with a potential dip followed by a rebound. Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, it could directly boost gold prices. As such, the trading strategy for the week leans towards a bullish view within a range-bound market.

From a one-year outlook, geopolitical risks between the U.S. and Iran are ultimately expected to resolve, though the timing remains uncertain. In the short term, surging energy prices triggering heightened inflation expectations could shift rate cut expectations to rate hike expectations. Combined with a liquidity crisis, gold and silver could become the easiest assets to liquidate, leading to selling pressure.

Over the medium to long term, however, this geopolitical risk premium acts as a classic catalyst for a prolonged gold bull market. Historical patterns show that during conflict escalation or energy supply disruptions, investors often turn to gold to hedge uncertainty.

Conflicts causing supply crises can also weaken economies, spark recession fears, and increase stagflation risks, which are favorable for long-term gains in gold and silver. Comparing with the periods from 2020 to 2022 and from July 2007 to August 2008, where oil prices doubled, gold subsequently entered bull markets.

Currently, structural factors supporting long-term gold strength persist, including continuous central bank purchasing, ETF inflows, and global trade and geopolitical uncertainties. By year-end, gold prices are still anticipated to target levels above $6,000, with silver potentially reaching above $150.

Technically, on a monthly chart, gold's March close above an ascending trend line maintains the bullish outlook, and April's opening continues this upward trajectory. As long as monthly closes remain above this trend line, expectations for new highs persist.

On the weekly chart, gold is extending the previous week's rebound from a bottom, showing strength and trading above the middle Bollinger Band. However, it has not yet broken above the resistance of the 10-week moving average near $2,900. A weekly close forming a shooting star or doji pattern could signal a pullback towards the $2,500 support level or lower next week before rebounding. Otherwise, the upward trend is likely to continue.

On the daily chart, although gold remains above the 100-day moving average, resistance from Wednesday's decline and the 10-day and 60-day moving averages continues to exert pressure. The ZZ indicator has already signaled a top for the rebound. Therefore, a failure to break above the 60-day moving average resistance could lead to consolidation or a decline towards support levels at $2,655 or $2,500. Until a decisive breakout above resistance or a confirmed bounce from support, intraday trading should focus on short-term resistance and support levels for tactical positions.

For specific real-time trading guidance, refer to live account information. Preliminary intraday trading levels for reference are as follows; exact entry and exit points are subject to real-time notifications.

Gold: Support levels to watch are near $2,725 or $2,655; resistance levels are near $2,840 or $2,880. Silver: Support levels to watch are near $73.45 or $72.10; resistance levels are near $77.40 or $78.30.