The following is the National Day holiday risk advisory from the futures research division.

Macro and Ferrous Metals

Macro view: During the National Day holiday, the biggest overseas risk stems from the continued rise in US Treasury yields, which could trigger margin calls or even stop-losses, and a liquidity crunch that sparks a debt crisis. The risk assessment depends on the progress of US-Iran negotiations before the holiday. If talks remain deadlocked with no clear timetable for reopening the strait, it is advisable to reduce exposure to hedge against potential holiday risks.

Logic: The rise in US Treasury yields is mainly driven by the Middle East situation. Trump has publicly rejected Iran's "ceasefire proposal" to reopen the strait after seven days. If military conflict erupts again during the period and oil prices continue to surge, this could push yields even higher. Under extreme bond market conditions, abnormal movements by sovereign, pension, and proprietary funds of enormous scale could more easily trigger a society-wide liquidity crunch, causing severe financial market turmoil. The market is exceptionally sensitive to non-farm payroll data and Federal Reserve officials' remarks. Currently, overseas tech investors favor betting on a "bad news exhausted" scenario after rate hikes land, but if endogenous and imported inflation threats rise and force an accelerated rate hike expectation gap, this could lead to an extreme scenario of simultaneous stock and bond selloffs. Financial and commodity varieties with strong discretionary attributes may be affected by the above and move in tandem with stocks and bonds. China-US negotiations have achieved the maximum result of mutual tariff reductions. There is a very small probability that the US launches a new round of tech sanctions against China during the holiday, which if it occurs would significantly impact related domestic assets and the RMB exchange rate.

Stock Index View

Holiday risks mainly originate overseas: first, persistently rising US Treasury yields and term premium risk suppress global equity market risk appetite; second, the progress of US-Iran agreement negotiations. As in the 2023 holiday when US Treasury yields rose alongside the Israel-Palestine conflict, all four indices fell after the holiday. Therefore, the main risk for the equity market this holiday lies in downside gap risk. It is advisable to reduce long positions before the holiday to guard against major overseas volatility during the break.

Logic: The tech-led structural bull market requires liquidity support. On one hand, Fed rate hikes suppress equity valuation levels. On the other hand, if US Treasury term premiums continue to rise, this also raises tech companies' new bond issuance and refinancing costs. From the allocation perspective, with long-term bond yields persistently rising, the volatility of stock-bond portfolio combinations increases, and equity exposure faces passive reduction demand that further amplifies market volatility. Be alert to repeated US-Iran negotiations triggering another strengthening of energy and shipping costs. If progress during the holiday is unfavorable, supply shocks pushing oil prices higher would reinforce US inflation concerns and are expected to indirectly suppress global equity valuations. The A-share market will miss a total of 5 trading days during the National Day holiday. Hong Kong stocks have 4 independent trading days (10/2, 10/5-10/7, all without Stock Connect), US stocks trade normally for 5 days; SGX FTSE A50 futures trade essentially continuously during the holiday. The holiday trading conditions of these external markets are the most important leading anchors for A-shares after the holiday.

Ferrous Metals View

Overall risk in the ferrous metals sector during the National Day holiday is not high, with coking coal and coke facing greater downward pressure and the possibility of a lower opening gap after the holiday. It is advisable to adjust positions before the holiday to avoid long-holiday uncertainties.

Logic: Steel mill profitability is weak, hot metal output is constrained by production cuts, downstream pre-holiday restocking is essentially complete, and rigid demand support for coking coal and coke is weakening. The negative feedback from weak steel transmitting to coking coal and coke persists. Domestic supply guarantees continue, Mongolian coal imports have recovery expectations, and loose supply expectations could ferment during the holiday. The extended market closure accumulates industry news, and combined with pre-holiday margin requirement increases, risk-aversion sentiment rises, amplifying the downside gap risk for coking coal and coke after the holiday.

Agricultural Products: Oilseeds and Protein

During the National Day holiday, the oilseeds and protein sector faces significant event-driven risk, with a higher probability of a lower opening gap after the holiday than a higher one. Optimistic expectations for China-US consultations have been fully priced in, and combined with crowded fund positioning and US soybean harvest pressure, it is advisable to moderately adjust positions and control risk exposure before the holiday to avoid holiday uncertainties.

Logic: China-US negotiations are the core variable during the holiday. The key question is whether the policy purchase quota of over 25 million tons for the 2026/27 marketing year can be secured, followed by whether the 10% additional tariff (currently at 13%) can be removed. Market expectations for policy purchases exceed those for tariff reductions, and this expectation has been largely reflected in prices. If no incremental positive materializes during the holiday, there is a risk of expectations falling short and triggering a pullback. Currently in the US soybean harvest pressure release phase, after the production reduction theme is disproven, the pricing focus shifts to the supply side. Under the combined effect of event outcomes and harvest pressure, if negotiation results fall short of expectations, the market could see a relatively rapid and significant decline. South American planting season weather and geopolitical risks in Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran regions have relatively later timing impacts, expected to be gradually priced after the holiday. In the medium to long term, the tight supply-demand pattern remains unchanged, and after entering the South American weather speculation phase, weather premium space may expand. After the pullback, the medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

Oils and Fats View

The MPOB September supply-demand report has been released, with Malaysia maintaining a production increase and inventory buildup pattern. The bearish report combined with long position profit-taking led to a significant pullback in the oils and fats sector from previous highs. Previous bearish factors have been concentratedly realized, and short-term risk release has been relatively thorough. Currently, oils and fats lack directional drivers and are expected to mainly consolidate inventory pressure through wide-range oscillation. However, during the National Day holiday, Malaysian palm oil, crude oil, and other external markets trade continuously, raising post-holiday gap risk. It is advisable to reduce positions before the holiday and avoid holding heavy single-direction positions over the break.

Logic: Continuation of origin high inventory trading: Chinese and Indian procurement demand is suppressed by high prices. Under origin high inventory pressure, the market will continue to trade around inventories, constraining rebound space. But bearish factors have been partially digested, and short-term fundamentals do not support a significant decline, limiting the cost-effectiveness of chasing shorts. Crude oil volatility spillover: If crude oil fluctuates significantly during the holiday due to geopolitical conflicts or macro events, it will spill over to the oils and fats sector through the biodiesel logic, amplifying Malaysian palm oil intraday volatility and raising post-holiday domestic gap risk. Key focus should be on Brent and Malaysian palm oil night session movements. Domestic soybean oil Q4 cost increase: Q4 soybean import costs are expected to rise, strengthening the soybean oil cost support logic. Combined with post-holiday oil mill startup/shutdown and soybean oil inventory changes, soybean oil outright and soybean-palm oil spread may see periodic volatility amplification.

Live Hogs View

The live hog industry is beginning to enter the gradual realization phase of earlier capacity reduction. Supply pressure still needs to be digested over time. The spot market is expected to remain in a bottom oscillation with a slowly rising price center. Before body weight is fully digested, the futures market will mainly focus on repairing the premium.

Logic: Historically, the fluctuation range of live hog futures contracts around National Day mainly depends on the degree of commercial hog backlog before the holiday. Without a clear gap or massive backlog, the probability of large fluctuations during the National Day holiday is relatively low. The live hog industry is beginning to enter the gradual realization phase of earlier capacity reduction. In the early stage of capacity reduction realization, current supply pressure release is generally below market expectations, group companies are selling slowly according to plan, and hog body weights have accumulated to some extent. Supply pressure still needs to be digested over time, and the spot market is expected to remain in a bottom oscillation with a slowly rising price center. With commercial hogs continuously being offered for sale, the probability of excessive selling pressure during the National Day holiday is low. At the same time, current capacity reduction is limited, so the probability of a major rally during the National Day holiday is also low.

Eggs View

The current egg market presents a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern: short-term laying hen inventories are temporarily tight, while medium to long-term laying hen inventories continue to recover. Under the influence of the high basis problem, near-month contracts after the holiday may face some risk of repair and strengthening, but in the medium term, egg prices are still expected to continue their downward trend.

Logic: Historically, egg futures contract fluctuations around National Day are relatively small, mainly because egg demand has strong seasonality before and after the holiday, and the futures market typically prices in discount expectations well in advance, making the probability of counter-seasonal surprises after the holiday low. The current egg market presents a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern. Currently, laying hen inventories are in a tight state. After entering September, the Mid-Autumn stocking peak concluded, and large numbers of old hens at high ages were culled, keeping short-term inventories persistently tight. But at the same time, it can be seen that from Q2 to Q3 2026, chick replenishment was the largest for the same period in history. In September, under high industry profits, the main reason for old hen culling was also to make room for newly laying hens. Laying hen capacity is expected to continue recovering. Under the impact of continuous culling in the earlier period, September egg spot prices rose instead of falling. The market has now fully priced in October egg price decline expectations. The JD2611 contract currently has the largest basis for the same period in recent years. Be alert to the risk that spot prices do not decline as expected during the National Day period.

Cotton View

Overall risk during this holiday is relatively high, with a greater probability of a lower opening after the holiday and gap risk. It is advisable to appropriately reduce exposure before the holiday based on individual position situations and avoid uncontrollable holiday risks.

Logic: Xinjiang cotton is about to enter its concentrated listing period. Seed cotton purchase prices are expected to have further downside, with a relatively high possibility of continuing to fall from the current 7.3 yuan/kg to around 7.1 yuan/kg. New cotton supply pressure will continue to be released during the holiday, and the spot price center faces downward risk. Although futures have already broken below previous processing costs and show technical rebound signs, the rebound is more about repairing overly pessimistic pricing rather than a trend reversal. Downstream peak-season orders have not shown obvious volume increases, operating rates are low, and the spot side lacks strong support. Once purchase prices continue to decline, futures will struggle to truly stabilize. External US cotton has been continuously weakening recently. If Xinjiang purchase prices and external prices adjust further during the holiday, the domestic market cannot synchronously digest this due to closure, and after the holiday it will easily be concentratedly realized through gaps.

Sugar View

Overall risk for sugar during the National Day period is moderate. The domestic market is closed while external markets trade normally, creating some gap risk after the holiday. However, with current bullish and bearish factors intertwined, it is not appropriate to make a one-sided judgment on a higher or lower opening after the holiday. It is advisable to appropriately adjust positions before the holiday based on individual risk tolerance to reduce exposure risk from external market fluctuations during the holiday.

Logic: Overseas supply-side uncertainty remains high. Brazil's sugar mix has recently recovered somewhat, and Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture may release first-half September production data around the holiday. Changes in Indian domestic sugar prices and subsequent policies could also disturb ICE raw sugar movements. Domestic August sugar sales improved significantly, but inventory pressure has not yet been resolved. National industrial inventories remain at the highest level for the same period in nearly a decade. September sales data is typically released after the holiday in previous years, with relatively limited impact on the first trading day after the holiday. CFTC fund net long positions are at recent-year highs, with relatively concentrated fund positioning. Once market expectations change, concentrated position reduction could amplify external market volatility. If ICE raw sugar shows a clear one-directional move during the holiday, Zhengzhou sugar faces catch-up gains/losses and gap risk after the holiday.

Corn View

The "weak domestic, strong overseas" pattern persists, with limited fluctuation range. Dalian corn still has short-term downside space, with significant harvest pressure during the National Day period. External corn should focus on seasonal harvest pressure and the Black Sea situation.

Logic: Historical statistics show that domestic corn fluctuations after National Day are relatively small. Domestically, the main focus is on autumn grain listing selling pressure and policy stockpiling. Farmers will likely not hold back sales, while wheat market support ends at the end of September, and wheat substitution pressure persists. Old crop season-end shows no tail-up, new season has bumper production, and staged contradictions are not significant. Focus on October-December seasonal selling pressure. Stockpiling policy will likely only be introduced from late November to December. Current prices have fallen below planting costs (including land rent), with short-term downside space expected to remain. Historical statistics show that external corn fluctuations during National Day are limited. US corn supply-demand has shifted from loose to tight, with the balance sheet tightening. Managed fund net long positions have hit historical highs. Key focus should be on the Black Sea conflict, the impact of a China-US leadership meeting on agricultural tariffs, and El Nino weather risks for South American corn.

Peanuts View

The post-holiday opening price is expected to rise moderately; watch for downside risk.

Logic: Historical pattern: Since listing in 2021, post-National Day opening prices have risen more often than fallen, with fluctuation ranges mostly within 3%. Only 2023 saw a decline, which was a year of transformative area increase. New crop supply: Total area has slightly decreased, ending three years of expansion. On the yield side, last year's high base constitutes pullback risk. Henan grassroots surveys show that the year-on-year difference in plants per hole multiplied by pods per hole is not significant, but the screen-up recovery rate has generally declined, pointing to downward revision in hundred-grain weight and yield. Current pressure and holiday risk: Since September, various regions have been digging up peanuts successively. Futures once hit a new low for the year and are oscillating weakly at historical mid-to-low levels. Harvest listing will continue into October. After summer peanuts in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan and spring peanuts in Northeast China are fully underway, supply will seasonally surge. Most spot prices are at historical lows. Sales regions and edible end-users are purchasing on demand, and large-scale oil mills are not in a hurry to start the crushing and stockpiling peak season. Comprehensive assessment: The low point of spot purchasing sentiment has appeared, but if autumn harvest proceeds smoothly during the holiday while demand remains poor, spot weakness will lower delivery costs, constituting post-holiday downside risk.

Domestic Soybeans View

Post-holiday gap risk requires key vigilance. New-season domestic soybeans are about to be listed, and the production reduction logic is gradually being confirmed, but warehouse receipt pressure is significant, and the bearish suppression from import substitution persists. Watch for frost risk in Northeast China production areas during National Day.

Logic: Domestic soybean average volatility on the first day after National Day over the past three years has been 1.2%, with a post-holiday lower opening probability of about 67%. Domestically, focus on new soybean listing, production area weather, and reserve releases. The domestic soybean index has accumulated gains of over 20% in the earlier period. At high levels, under pressure from import substitution, concentrated new-season listing, and high warehouse receipts, a modest pullback is possible around the double holiday. Tight supply-demand balance and significantly elevated planting costs solidify the price center. Risk points include Northeast frost speculation, new soybean listing supply release, CBOT US soybean harvest period weather and USDA reports, reserve releases and stockpiling expectations, and Russian soybean import pace. Any exceeding expectations could amplify post-holiday gaps.

Metals and New Materials: Precious Metals View

Gap risk during National Day is moderately high, with tail risk concentrated in silver. Direction is two-way, with greater volatility than a regular holiday. Rate hike trading has not yet cleared (market pricing for an October hike is about 67.5%). The holiday coincides with密集 September non-farm payrolls (October 2) and other events, and the two market closure periods amplify the repricing effect. If overseas sentiment turns hawkish, gold and silver may open lower followed by wide-range fluctuation (pressure reference: gold -5% to +7%, silver -9% to +10%). However, central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows provide support. Gold has strong support above $4,000 with limited deep decline space. Silver is dragged by weak Q4 demand with limited rebound. It is advisable to moderately reduce leverage before the holiday, maintain sufficient margin buffer, measure gold and silver exposures separately in the most unfavorable direction, avoid netting them out, set separate limits for option seller positions, and reduce platinum and palladium positions simultaneously.

Logic: Macro suppression remains: the hawkish dot plot after the September rate hike has not been fully digested, October's additional 25bp hike is priced at about 67.5%. Non-farm payrolls and Fed officials' remarks during the holiday directly affect the dollar and long-end US Treasury yields, constituting tightening repricing risk. After Mid-Autumn Festival, only three trading days remain (September 28-30) for position adjustment. The same shock could be repriced in two stages. The bottom logic remains unchanged: central bank gold purchases (China's central bank increased holdings by 19.91 tons in August, the largest single month since resuming purchases) and trend gold ETF inflows (205.7 tons added in Q3) provide support. CFTC gold net longs are about 131,000 lots, with positioning not crowded. Silver is pressured on the industrial side by weak Q4 photovoltaic demand and accelerating silver-free technology. Scenario analysis: Base case gold ±2%, silver ±3.5% range oscillation; tightening repricing scenario gold -3% to -5%, silver -6% to -9%; safe-haven escalation would benefit gold first.

Aluminum View

Aluminum gap risk during National Day is relatively low, with a stronger oscillation bias. Pre-holiday destocking exceeded expectations (September 24 domestic aluminum ingot social inventory at 678,000 tons, down 55,000 tons week-on-week), SHFE warehouse receipts fell from 205,000 tons to 147,000 tons in the past two weeks, LME inventory at a low of about 240,000 tons. Combined with pre-holiday stocking and Middle East geopolitical premium, price support below is relatively strong. Upside is constrained by alumina oversupply and moderate demand recovery. Post-holiday bias is for a flat or slightly lower opening followed by oscillation. Key focus should be on the sustainability of the destocking slope. It is advisable to control outright exposure. Shorts should not hold heavy naked short positions in near-month contracts. Track Guinea bauxite policy and peak-season demand realization.

Logic: Low inventory and unexpected destocking are the core support: aluminum ingot social inventory is accelerating its drawdown, with institutions expecting a drop below 700,000 tons by end-September. High aluminum-to-liquid ratio shrinks ingot casting volume, pre-holiday stocking is active; LME inventory is low, and overseas squeeze risks remain. Supply side has both bullish and bearish factors: Middle East restarts are in line with expectations (Alba restored to about 1.3 million tons, EGA slowly restarting), Indonesian new capacity is delayed by power constraints with limited short-term increments. But alumina oversupply continues (total inventory 6.87 million tons, Guangxi new capacity coming online), cost side cannot provide additional drivers, and electrolytic aluminum profits are high, constraining rebound height. Macro and post-holiday verification: If overseas sentiment turns hawkish during the holiday, the sector may open under pressure. With low inventory, the probability of a pullback after a lower opening is relatively high. Demand structure is warming but traditionally weak. Key focus should be on post-holiday destocking slope, aluminum billet inventory recovery, and Guinea mining policy changes.

Nickel & Stainless Steel View

Overall assessment of gap risk during National Day is relatively low, with a bearish bias. Nickel prices have been continuously weakening before the holiday, and the weak pattern remains unchanged. Macro bearish factors (rising Fed rate hike expectations) and Indonesian supply loosening (RKAB release, WBN restart) dominate. After the holiday, nickel and stainless steel tend toward a lower or flat opening with slight weakness, with limited probability of large gaps—because bearish factors are currently fairly well priced in, and the probability of extreme new bearish factors during the holiday is not high. However, if Fed officials' remarks or October meeting expectations strengthen further during the holiday, the lower opening range could widen. It is advisable to moderately reduce leverage and adjust positions before the holiday. Longs should avoid holding over the holiday. Shorts can hold light positions but should not chase shorts. Position control below normal levels is appropriate.

Logic: Supply loosening logic has dominated the market and will likely continue after the holiday: Indonesian RKAB revised approvals are gradually landing, wet-process ore HPM tax fees are declining, MHP is gradually recovering, a trend bearish factor that the holiday will not reverse. Post-holiday nickel price upside pressure remains. But production cuts providing support and low valuations limit downside space, so gap risk is not large. El Nino causing IMIP water shortage production cuts, East China steel mills arranging early October maintenance and production cuts before the holiday, cost support and supply contraction offset loosening expectations. Stainless steel pre-holiday performance was stronger than nickel. The main holiday uncertainty lies in macro and demand verification. If overseas inflation data or officials' remarks turn hawkish during the holiday, this will suppress the entire non-ferrous sector at the post-holiday open. Conversely, if domestic post-National Day stainless steel peak-season restocking starts, a lower opening followed by a pullback pattern could form. Demand-side "Golden September" has been disproven (peak season not realized, mainly terminal rigid demand). Post-holiday supply-demand loosening plus high inventory (LME nickel inventory 279,000 tons) pattern remains unchanged, and rebound height is similarly constrained. Neither bulls nor bears are extreme, so "lower opening oscillation, center biased downward" is the base case scenario.

Lithium Carbonate View

Overall risk during National Day is moderate. Post-holiday gap direction is highly uncertain. The risk of a large one-directional gap exceeds the risk of a trending higher or lower opening after the holiday. The market is in a key battleground zone of 125,000-130,000 yuan/ton. Any holiday news (supply disruption/production scheduling data/warehouse receipt new rule anticipation) could trigger a gap in either direction. It is advisable to consider reducing positions to below half before the holiday. Shorts should particularly note the high position risk before the end-of-November cancellation, and longs should avoid full positions.

Logic: Prices are at key levels, and bullish-bearish divergence is high. Lithium carbonate has high open interest, making gap sensitivity extremely high. Holiday and post-holiday news flow is dense, with two-way catalysts coexisting. On the supply side, lithium ore is arriving at ports in concentration, port inventories are increasing, and the Jianxiawo mining environmental assessment progress is underway. National Day holiday new energy vehicle store traffic news, strait situation impact on oil prices and energy storage demand expectations. The warehouse receipt new rule time window is approaching, and post-holiday gaming will escalate. End of October is the last registration window for old-standard goods. End of November old warehouse receipts are forcibly cancelled and cannot be re-registered. LC2612 only accepts new-standard warehouse receipts. After the holiday, the market will gradually trade the "deliverable supply contraction" logic, combined with current continuous warehouse receipt outflow and receipt volumes below last year's same period. The game between short position rolling and position clearing will intensify significantly in October. Post-holiday volatility will likely be higher than pre-holiday. It is advisable to hold light positions over the holiday and choose direction after the holiday.

Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon View

Cost and supply-demand dimensions show weak reality and weak expectations, but "anti-involution" policy could lead to a higher opening after the holiday.

Logic: On the supply-demand dimension, both industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a high inventory, weak demand, and supply-oversupplied situation. High inventory suppresses prices, causing upstream profit contraction. Future dry season Southwest upstream production cuts could drive staged supply-demand improvement, but cannot reverse the oversupply pattern. On the cost dimension, forward electricity supply-demand expectations are weaker than current. The core factor is that summer peak demand is the annual electricity consumption peak, while El Nino will likely bring a warm winter, with heating demand lower year-on-year. "Anti-involution" policy guides healthy industry development, and polysilicon upstream supply is expected to contract in an orderly manner until supply-demand balance. If incremental "anti-involution" policy implementation news emerges during the holiday, it could lead to a higher opening for both silicon products after the holiday.

Energy & Chemicals: Crude Oil View

Although short-term bearish logic exists, the following upside risks during the holiday cannot be ignored: Geopolitical premium has not faded. Iran's core demands have not been met, and Trump has rejected its proposed 7-day roadmap plan. Conflict uncertainty could push oil prices higher at any time. Supply side is approaching extremes. Global measurable commercial inventories are expected to be exhausted by end-October. Once inventories bottom out, countries will face problems shifting from high inflation to direct recession, forcing oil grabbing and hoarding behavior, which反而 further intensifies upward pressure. Market expectations remain relatively pessimistic. Prediction platforms show the probability of Strait of Hormuz navigation in the short term remains below 10%, while multiple investment banks maintain bullish views. Increased bullish-bearish divergence means any marginal change could trigger an upward breakout. Therefore, even maintaining a short-term bearish judgment, one must be alert to the above factors causing oil prices to rise instead of fall. It is advisable to retain corresponding bullish hedge exposure in strategies.

Polyolefins View

The polyolefins sector has hidden volatility risks during National Day. Supply recovery combined with holiday inventory buildup makes a lower opening after the holiday relatively more likely. Gap volatility risk objectively exists. Positions need adjustment before the holiday, and holdings should be managed to avoid holiday risk.

Logic: On the supply side, multiple previously overhauled units plan to resume production around National Day. Domestic commodity supply is expected to rise, industry operating rates remain high, and market supply is ample. On the demand side, injection molding, plastic weaving, agricultural film, and other downstream factories face holiday shutdowns. Pre-holiday stocking is essentially complete. Inventory will continue to accumulate during the holiday, and the spot market is unlikely to see significant improvement. On the cost side, crude oil, light hydrocarbons, and other overseas varieties cannot be digested in real-time during the holiday. Although there is no direct external contract benchmark, energy price movements will transmit to domestic chemical valuations. The extended holiday easily leads to concentrated one-time pricing after the holiday, and risks need to be guarded against.

PX/PTA View

Geopolitical uncertainty dominates cost-side fluctuations during National Day. If US-Iran peace talks progress, PX/PTA face post-holiday lower opening gap risk. It is advisable to reasonably adjust positions before the holiday to avoid external market volatility risk.

Logic: Cost-side geopolitical disturbance elasticity is large. During domestic market closure, Middle East situation changes transmit directly to international crude oil and Asian PX external prices, easily triggering gaps after the holiday. Supply-side pressure is marginally rising. Domestic PX and PTA overhauled units are gradually restarting. Supply increments continue to be released. PTA has entered an inventory buildup inflection point. The supply-demand pattern is marginally loosening, weakening price support. Demand-side support is gradually weakening. Pre-holiday stocking is entering its final phase. Terminal orders are generally weak. Polyester operating rates continue to decline month-on-month. Demand-side supporting force is diminishing. Under relatively high valuations, pullback risk continues to accumulate.

Ethylene Glycol View

Currently ethylene glycol is relatively strong due to import disruptions and low inventory support. If geopolitical tensions ease during the holiday, cost decline combined with import expectation recovery could lead to weakening prices. It is advisable to reasonably adjust positions before the holiday to avoid geopolitical volatility risk.

Logic: Geopolitics is the core pricing variable. The Middle East situation directly determines Strait of Hormuz navigation expectations and crude oil cost premium. If the situation changes marginally during the holiday, import supply expectations will be quickly repriced, driving significant market fluctuations. Import recovery continues to fall below expectations. Current East China port inventory is at historical lows. Spot tightness supports high basis. But during sentiment reversals, futures valuation corrections will also be amplified synchronously, with upside/downside elasticity potentially higher than other varieties in the supply chain. Recently, affected by profit compression, polyester operating rates have continued to decline, forming negative feedback. Ethylene glycol destocking range has narrowed. If geopolitics ease, supply-demand expectations will quickly turn loose.

Methanol View

Low inventory, import contraction, good demand—near-term supply-demand is relatively tight. A post-holiday higher opening gap is possible.

Logic: On the demand side, Strait of Hormuz blockade, oil price rise, MTO profit expansion, and methanol demand growth. On the supply side, imports are significantly contracted due to US-Iran conflict. Demand increase and supply decrease have led to rapid social inventory decline, with basis at year-on-year highs. After the holiday, US-Iran conflict will likely remain in a stalemate, intensifying methanol supply tightness. If US-Iran conflict escalates during the holiday, it could drive a post-holiday higher opening gap for methanol.

Urea View

Cost and supply-demand dimensions show weak reality and weak expectations. A lower opening after the holiday is possible, but the probability of a large gap is relatively low.

Logic: On the demand side, off-season weak demand. Export seasonal improvement is the only significant positive in the off-season, but exports follow the principle of nurturing the industry and will not cause inventory tightness. Cost side: coal supply-demand expectations are weakening. As domestic temperatures drop, thermal power demand decreases. Supply side gradually enters the supply guarantee period. Marginal supply-demand weakening drags prices. On the supply side, as coal prices weaken, urea upstream profits expand and supply increases. Combined with about 2% new capacity coming online in the future, supply is relatively loose.

Chlor-Alkali (Soda Ash, PVC, Caustic Soda) View

The sector faces relatively high uncertainty risk during the National Day holiday. Inventory buildup pressure is prominent. A lower opening after the holiday is relatively likely. Gap weakening risk requires vigilance. Positions should be moderately adjusted before the holiday to avoid multi-dimensional potential holiday risks.

Logic: On the industry level, downstream enterprises shut down and reduce production during the National Day holiday. Soda ash, PVC, and caustic soda face passive demand withdrawal. Factory and social inventories face upward pressure. Spot fundamentals are relatively soft, constraining the post-holiday market. Downstream real estate, glass, and alumina industry recovery strength is limited. Traditional peak season realization is below expectations. Terminals maintain only rigid demand procurement. Pre-holiday stocking enthusiasm is insufficient. The sector lacks substantial bullish support. Overseas market variables are numerous. Holiday overseas macro data and energy price anomalies will disturb overall chemical market sentiment. Market closure suspends liquidity, which will amplify post-holiday gap volatility. High positions over the holiday are not advisable.

Rubber View

Unless there are major changes in overseas macro conditions, collective surges or crashes in external commodity markets, or rare natural disasters in Thailand during National Day, rubber holiday risk is generally limited. To prevent potential black swan damage, risk control and position adjustment should still be considered before the holiday.

Logic: Rubber external market trading volume and open interest are relatively low, with limited influence on the domestic market. From rubber's price action over the past month, it is clear that rubber has decoupled from synthetic rubber, and consequently from crude oil, limiting the impact of overseas risk factors on Shanghai rubber. National Day holiday consumption data and other domestic factors also have limited impact on rubber. Unless major changes occur in overseas macro conditions during the holiday, with collective surges or crashes in external commodity markets, Shanghai rubber will show delayed reactions to macro and crude oil. Recently, Thai weather and production have shown bullish conditions, with Thai raw material prices staying high. Since rubber is continuously produced, during the National Day holiday, unless unexpected severe natural disasters occur in Thailand, one week of weather and production will not change the overall supply pattern.