The question of whether a growth stock, newly listed and facing a lockup expiry, presents a "valuation gap" for left-side investing to capture a significant premium has a historical answer in the investment world. The founding philosophy of value investing, as espoused by Benjamin Graham, is to invest in "cheap" assets. In contrast, Charlie Munger's approach advocates buying fairly-priced growth stocks and holding them in significant size for the long term, a method he termed the "sit-on-your-ass" investing style. In reality, finding a high-quality company at an attractive price is exceptionally rare, as the market is rife with temptations and low-valuation traps are ubiquitous.
The Hong Kong stock market is often seen as a haven for growth-at-a-value stocks. Reviewing the performance of most newly listed companies, nearly all experience substantial valuation retracements in the 1-2 months preceding a lockup expiry. This phenomenon is largely disconnected from fundamentals; the core reason is market anxiety over potential selling by cornerstone or pre-IPO investors and short-term traders taking profits. However, this very situation creates opportunities for value investors to acquire growth stocks at a discount.
Robotics Sector Demonstrates Strongest "Resilience" During Lockup Expiry Wave
Examining case studies of one-year post-IPO lockup expiries across different sectors reveals distinct patterns. For instance, in the popular AI large model and application sector, represented by companies like Unisound and Zhipu AI, average declines on the lockup expiry day exceeded 20%, with some individual stocks dropping over 40%. The pharmaceutical sector followed a similar trend, with a representative like YS Biopharma plunging 59.7% on its lockup expiry day. In the robotics sector, companies such as Dobot and MicroPort MedBot saw declines exceeding 10%. Clearly, the robotics sector has shown greater resilience and attracted more investor favor. Some stocks even recovered their losses swiftly after a sharp fall; for example, Dobot regained its pre-lockup price within two trading days, while Ubtech Robotics, after a two-week period of low volume, sustained a strong rally, recovering all losses within a month.
GEEKPLUS-W (ASX: 02590), as a leader in the AI + robotics niche, saw a mere 4.9% decline on its one-year lockup expiry day, demonstrating a much more stable performance. This suggests that pre-IPO shareholders did not engage in significant selling, and there was substantial buying interest from value-oriented funds providing strong support.
The Valuation Gap Created by Lockup Expiry Presents a Window for Opportunistic Buying
There are three primary reasons why GEEKPLUS maintained relative stability during its lockup period compared to the severe volatility seen in other stocks. First, its valuation had already fallen into a "golden pit" before the expiry, partially absorbing negative sentiment risks. Second, unlike other companies, its cornerstone investors and major pre-IPO shareholders committed not to sell, eliminating actual selling pressure. Third, value investors employing left-side strategies actively stepped in to buy.
As mentioned, a high-quality company at a good price is the holy grail for value investors. GEEKPLUS not only boasts strong fundamentals and is already profitable but also carries significant growth expectations, attracting value-based capital at its valuation bottom. As the industry leader, GEEKPLUS has ranked first globally in the Autonomous Mobile Robot (AMR) market for seven consecutive years. Both customer stickiness and per-customer value are consistently increasing, and the company has already validated its profitable business model.
The company has broken the industry curse of "increasing revenue without increasing profit," entering an era of balanced, high-profit growth. For 2025, it achieved 31.9% growth, with newly signed orders worth RMB 4.137 billion, nearly 80% of which came from overseas markets. Growth in the Americas exceeded 50%, indicating robust and sustainable global momentum. Furthermore, benefiting from economies of scale, the company turned its adjusted profit positive, saw operating cash flow swing significantly into positive territory, and achieved a virtuous cycle of revenue, profit, and cash flow.
From an industry perspective, according to a Huaxi Securities research report, the global AMR solutions market is projected to grow to RMB 162.1 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.1% from 2024 to 2029. The penetration rate of AMR solutions in the overall warehouse automation sector increased from 4.4% in 2020 to 8.2% in 2024 and is expected to reach 20.2% by 2029. GEEKPLUS's combination of a "high-growth sector + leading position + profitability" makes it a scarce investment target in the capital markets.
Consequently, the company has garnered consistent recognition from shareholders and institutional investors. Vertex Ventures noted that the company achieved profitability on an adjusted basis and positive operating cash flow in 2025, which is uncommon in the current Hong Kong-listed robotics sector. HongWei Capital stated that GEEKPLUS has a clear path for implementing embodied intelligence solutions. Its years of accumulated robot operational data, deep understanding of application scenarios, and continuous refinement of solutions position it to potentially convert embodied product concepts into effective industrial orders relatively quickly. Coupled with its deep global market presence, the firm is optimistic about GEEKPLUS's potential to deliver performance during the wave of embodied intelligence industrialization.
Industry PS of 17x vs. GEEKPLUS's 3.7x: Left-Side Investing to Lock in Growth Premium
From a valuation perspective, GEEKPLUS has significant room for multiple expansion. Using Price-to-Sales (PS) valuation as a reference for listed robotics peers, the industry average is around 17x, with the highest, such as MicroPort MedBot, reaching 41x. In contrast, GEEKPLUS trades at a mere 3.7x PS. While one is a leader in the surgical robotics track and the other in AMR, both possess strong growth characteristics, making GEEKPLUS appear severely undervalued. A Daiwa research report assigned GEEKPLUS a target price of HK$38, representing a potential upside of over 300% from the current price.
GEEKPLUS is also actively repurchasing shares to signal to the market that the current share price significantly deviates from its intrinsic value, indicating a clear value mismatch, while also conveying confidence in its long-term growth. On June 22, the company announced a share buyback plan, authorizing the repurchase of up to HK$2 billion worth of H-shares in the open market over the next 24 months, not exceeding 10% of the total issued shares. As part of the plan's purpose, the company intends to use repurchased shares for a share incentive scheme to deeply align with its talent. The total number of B-class ordinary shares issuable under the share award plan shall not exceed approximately 124 million, locking in long-term sustainable development.
Charlie Munger's "sit-on-your-ass" investing method screens for good companies at good prices, trading time for space. Although left-side investing involves a certain time cost, it can lock in the potential growth premium. For a high-quality, scarce target like GEEKPLUS, this strategy seems almost tailor-made. The valuation retracement caused by this lockup expiry wave has pushed the company's valuation into a golden pit, presenting an exceptional opportunity for left-side positioning.