Abstract

Li Auto will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on March 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles last quarter’s metrics and the latest projections on revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS alongside media and analyst commentary to frame likely drivers for the print.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest compiled forecasts, Li Auto’s current quarter revenue is estimated at RMB29.32 billion with year-over-year growth of 32.24%, EBIT is projected at -RMB112.02 million with a year-over-year decline of 103.81%, and adjusted EPS is estimated at RMB0.14 with a year-over-year decline of 94.08%. Forecast gross profit margin, net profit margin, and net profit are not consistently disclosed in the available estimates; however, the forecast points to stronger top-line momentum with pressure on profitability metrics. The company’s main business highlights continue to center on vehicle sales scaling and service monetization, while the most promising segment is automotive sales, estimated to deliver approximately RMB27.72 billion revenue this quarter with a year-over-year advance of about 32%, reflecting product breadth and delivery growth.

Last Quarter Review

In the most recent quarter, Li Auto recorded revenue of RMB27.36 billion, a gross profit margin of 16.33%, a GAAP net loss attributable to the parent of RMB0.63 billion with a net profit margin of -2.28%, and adjusted EPS of -RMB0.62, with revenue’s year-over-year change at -36.18% and adjusted EPS down 123.31% year over year. The company’s quarter-on-quarter net profit declined by 157.20%, signaling sharp margin compression and higher operating expenses amid a competitive market. Main business performance showed automotive sales revenue of RMB25.87 billion and other sales and services revenue of RMB1.50 billion, underscoring the core dependence on vehicle delivery momentum.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: vehicle sales and delivery scale

The current quarter centers on Li Auto’s vehicle sales, which historically contribute around 95% of revenue. With a revenue estimate of RMB29.32 billion and implied automotive sales near RMB27.72 billion based on historical mix, the market expects stronger deliveries from refreshed lineups and continued channel expansion. However, the negative EBIT projection indicates that pricing strategy, promotional spending, and model transition costs could weigh on margins even as volume improves. Investors should watch realized average selling prices and any commentary on discount cadence, as these will shape gross margin recovery prospects from the recent 16.33% baseline.

Most promising business: premium extended-range and service monetization

While automotive sales remain the dominant revenue driver, service and other revenue at approximately RMB1.50 billion last quarter points to a growing base of post-delivery monetization—software features, extended warranties, and charging-related services. This attach-rate expansion can support blended gross margins as the installed base grows, even if vehicle gross margins remain under pressure near term. Management’s color on software adoption, paid feature uptake, and aftersales growth will be critical to assessing the medium-term profitability path and the potential for higher-margin revenue streams to offset hardware pricing headwinds.

Key stock price drivers this quarter: margin trajectory, cost discipline, and demand elasticity

The forecasted negative EBIT and small positive adjusted EPS estimate signal a delicate balance between pushing volume and managing profitability. A sequential lift in deliveries without deeper-than-expected discounting could drive upside to gross margin from 16.33%, improving sentiment. Conversely, intensified market competition and model campaigns that rely on incentives may extend net margin pressure; the last quarter’s -2.28% net margin will be a reference point for whether operating leverage can stabilize. Commentary on operating expense control—particularly R&D and sales and marketing outlays—will inform whether the path to breakeven EBIT is in sight in the coming quarters.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary leans cautiously bullish, with a majority emphasizing revenue acceleration and delivery growth while acknowledging near-term margin risk. Well-followed analysts highlight that consensus anticipates robust year-over-year revenue growth of about 32% this quarter, but forecast a negative EBIT near -RMB112.02 million, implying that valuation reactions will hinge on evidence of gross margin stabilization and guidance clarity on pricing and mix. Strategists point to the expanding customer base and broader model mix as supportive factors for top-line momentum, while noting that sustained promotional intensity could delay a clean earnings inflection. Overall, the prevailing view expects Li Auto to beat on revenue or be in line and to guide prudently on profitability, with shares responding more to the margin trajectory and delivery commentary than headline EPS.