On September 30, the National Bureau of Statistics released its interpretation of China's September 2026 Purchasing Managers' Index, with Chief Statistician Huo Lihui of the Service Survey Center providing the analysis. In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, returning to expansion territory. Among the 21 surveyed industries, 12 recorded PMIs above the threshold, an increase of 4 from the previous month, indicating a broadening of business confidence across the manufacturing sector.

The manufacturing production index came in at 51.7%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the new orders index stood at 50.5%, edging down 0.1 percentage point. Both indices remained above the threshold, signaling continued improvement in both production and market demand among manufacturing enterprises. By industry, the production and new orders indices for agricultural and sideline food processing and pharmaceuticals both exceeded 55.0%, reflecting rapid releases of production and demand; meanwhile, the production and new orders indices for chemical raw materials and chemical products, as well as ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, continued to stay below the threshold.

The full text is as follows: September Purchasing Managers' Index Rises into Expansion Territory — Chief Statistician Huo Lihui of the Service Survey Center Interprets China's September 2026 Purchasing Managers' Index. On September 30, 2026, the Service Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing jointly released China's Purchasing Managers' Index. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Survey Center, provided an interpretation. In September, the manufacturing PMI, the non-manufacturing business activity index, and the composite PMI output index stood at 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7%, respectively, up 0.3, 1.2, and 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in overall economic vitality.

Manufacturing PMI Rises for a Second Consecutive Month

In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, returning to expansion territory. Among the 21 surveyed industries, 12 recorded PMIs above the threshold, an increase of 4 from the previous month, pointing to a broadening of business confidence across the manufacturing sector.

(1) Production and demand both remain in expansion. The manufacturing production index was 51.7%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the new orders index was 50.5%, slightly down 0.1 percentage point. Both indices stayed above the threshold, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing production and market demand. By industry, the production and new orders indices for agricultural and sideline food processing and pharmaceuticals both exceeded 55.0%, with related enterprises releasing production and demand at a relatively fast pace; the production and new orders indices for chemical raw materials and chemical products, as well as ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, continued to remain below the threshold. To meet production needs, enterprises further accelerated raw material procurement, with the purchase quantity index reaching 51.0%, up 0.5 percentage point from the previous month.

(2) Price indices continued to rise. Affected by recent increases in international commodity prices and growing demand in certain industries, the main raw material purchase price index and the ex-factory price index both rose for a second consecutive month, with overall market price levels in manufacturing rising notably. The main raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index stood at 60.8% and 54.0%, respectively, up 4.2 and 3.6 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, as international crude oil prices surged, both price indices for petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing and chemical raw materials and chemical products climbed above the 60.0% high level.

(3) The three major key industries expanded relatively quickly. The PMIs for equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods stood at 51.0%, 52.5%, and 50.7%, respectively, all above the threshold, indicating that enterprises in these industries were generally active in production and operations. The PMI for high energy-consuming industries was 48.0%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, reflecting some improvement in business conditions.

(4) Business conditions improved for small and medium-sized enterprises. The PMI for large manufacturing enterprises was 50.6%, unchanged from the previous month, maintaining expansion. The PMIs for medium-sized and small enterprises were 49.7% and 48.9%, respectively, up 0.3 and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, with business conditions recovering to varying degrees.

Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Rebounds Significantly

In September, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion territory, with non-manufacturing business conditions improving notably.

(1) The services business activity index rose into expansion territory. The services business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.9 percentage point from the previous month, moving above the threshold, indicating a recovery in services market activity. By industry, the business activity indices for telecommunications, radio and television, and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and insurance all stood above 55.0%, in a relatively high prosperity range, with total business volumes for related enterprises continuing to grow at a relatively fast pace; the business activity indices for capital market services and real estate remained at low levels. The services business activity expectations index was 55.5%, with recent expectations for services development continuing to improve.

(2) The construction business activity index rose to a year-to-date high. The construction business activity index was 50.3%, up 3.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion territory, with construction progress accelerating somewhat. The construction business activity expectations index was 55.4%, indicating that construction enterprises' confidence in future market development improved.

Composite PMI Output Index Above the Threshold

In September, the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the threshold, indicating that overall production and operating activities of Chinese enterprises expanded compared with the previous month. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which together make up the composite PMI output index, stood at 51.7% and 50.2%, respectively.