A budget oversight organization stated Wednesday that the US federal budget deficit over the next decade will be nearly $1 trillion higher than the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted in January, due to the impact of tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies.

The latest forecast from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), which advocates for deficit reduction, shows that cumulative deficits for fiscal years 2026 to 2035 will reach $22.7 trillion, compared to CBO's January prediction of $21.8 trillion based on laws and policies in place before Trump took office in January this year.

As Congress's nonpartisan budget evaluation agency, CBO announced Monday that it will no longer issue its regular mid-year budget update report this year, with the next ten-year budget and economic outlook report to be released in early 2026, though no explanation was provided for this adjustment.

CRFB predicts the fiscal 2025 deficit will be $1.7 trillion, representing 5.6% of GDP, slightly lower than 2024's $1.83 trillion and CBO's January forecast of $1.87 trillion for 2025. However, the organization notes that deficits will steadily rise over the next decade, reaching $2.6 trillion by 2035, or 5.9% of GDP.

CRFB's new estimates incorporate the budget impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" tax and spending legislation, as well as Trump's current tariff policies. However, like CBO, these forecasts do not include the dynamic effects of these policy changes on economic growth, a forecasting approach that has drawn criticism from the Trump administration.

The organization estimates that including interest, the aforementioned tax cuts and spending bill will increase deficits by $4.6 trillion through 2035, extending CBO's cost estimate of $4.1 trillion through 2034 by one additional year. However, CRFB also notes that Trump's current new tariff policies will generate $3.4 trillion in additional import tariff revenue over the next decade, partially offsetting this impact.

CRFB states that newly implemented Medicare subsidy eligibility restrictions will reduce deficits by $100 billion through 2035, and if Congress's previous appropriation cuts to foreign aid, public broadcasting, and other programs persist for ten years, they will save an additional $100 billion.

The organization forecasts that total net interest expenses on national debt over the next decade will reach $14 trillion, rising from nearly $1 trillion in 2025 (3.2% of GDP) to $1.8 trillion in 2035 (4.1% of GDP).

**Challenges of Tariff Policy**

The above forecasts are based on legislative and tariff adjustments since January but use CBO's original economic forecast data. In CRFB's alternative scenario forecast, the budget situation would deteriorate significantly, with deficits nearly $7 trillion higher than CBO's baseline.

This scenario assumes that if international trade court rulings opposing several of Trump's new tariffs take effect, numerous tariff policies would be canceled, resulting in $2.4 trillion less fiscal revenue over the next decade.

The alternative scenario also assumes that several temporary tax cut policies in the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" would be extended, including tax exemptions for overtime pay, tips, Social Security income, and auto loan interest, increased state and local tax deduction limits, and full expensing of factory investments, which would add $1.7 trillion to deficits over ten years.

Additionally, CRFB's alternative scenario does not adopt CBO's forecast that ten-year US Treasury yields will decline to approximately 3.8%. The organization states that if interest rates remain at the current level of about 4.3%, interest costs would increase by approximately $1.6 trillion by 2035.

The debt-to-GDP ratio in 2035 would rise from CBO's January baseline of 118% to 120% in CRFB's baseline scenario, and reach 134% in the alternative scenario.