Guoyuan International released a research report stating that overall, polysilicon prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Future trends will primarily depend on demand improvement and the effective implementation of supply-side production cut policies in the fourth quarter, which could lead to substantial improvements in the supply-demand balance. The firm preliminarily estimates that the industry is expected to return to normal profitability in 2026. From a medium to long-term perspective, leading companies with significant advantages in technology, costs, and energy consumption will benefit from capacity clearance. The firm recommends focusing on XINTE ENERGY (01799) and GCL TECH (03800).
Regarding production, the number of active polysilicon enterprises currently remains at 10, with overall operating rates maintaining relatively low levels and silicon material supply remaining generally stable. Domestic polysilicon production scheduling for September is estimated at around 130,000 tons, which still represents oversupply compared to downstream demand. Industry leaders plan to halt or reduce production at their Sichuan and Yunnan facilities after the holiday period. Some regional capacity will undergo maintenance or reduce operating rates, with October production scheduling expected to decline.
On the demand side, with holidays approaching, market procurement has been light, mainly because downstream leading enterprises have already accumulated substantial inventory. Against the backdrop of terminal demand falling short of expectations, the current primary strategy for downstream players is to prioritize consuming their existing inventory, with overall polysilicon order placement pace slowing down.
The firm noted that polysilicon inventory continues to maintain high levels exceeding 400,000 tons, with a slight accumulation trend persisting under continued supply-demand oversupply conditions. On one hand, weak market demand and persistent oversupply have led to high inventory accumulation. On the other hand, under industry self-discipline production cuts combined with strong policy expectations of national "anti-involution" measures, silicon material manufacturers are making every effort to support prices. This has created a standoff between polysilicon policy expectations and high inventory levels, further intensifying market gaming sentiment and causing divergence between producers' quoted prices and actual market transaction prices. Based on the current reduction in mainstream market orders, prices are expected to remain stable at high levels in the short term.