According to intelligence, in July 2025, national express delivery companies handled 16.4 billion parcels, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.1%. For the period from January to July 2025, the total volume reached 112.05 billion parcels, up 18.7% year-on-year. The continued trend toward smaller packages, e-commerce promotions, and convenient return and exchange services jointly drove the parcel volume growth in the first seven months of 2025 to exceed the Postal Administration's prediction of over 8% growth for the full year 2025.

In the e-commerce express segment, YTO, YD, and STO recorded July 2025 business volumes with year-on-year growth of 20.8%, 7.6%, and 11.9% respectively. For the January-July period, their business volumes grew 21.6%, 15.1%, and 19.3% year-on-year respectively. In the direct-operated express segment, SF Express achieved a 33.7% year-on-year increase in July 2025 business volume, with January-July volume up 26.9% year-on-year. This performance benefited from implementing activation business strategies and increasing authorization and incentives for frontline operations, with SF Express leading industry volume growth consecutively from March to July.

On August 12, the Ministry of Finance and State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement clarifying value-added tax policies for express delivery services and others, effective from the date of publication. The announcement specified that revenue from express delivery services provided by express companies should be subject to value-added tax under the "collection and delivery services" category.

A securities research report indicates that in July 2025, the industry's revenue per parcel was 7.36 yuan, down 5.33% year-on-year and 1.76% month-on-month. On one hand, the trend toward smaller express packages has impacted the industry's revenue per parcel. On the other hand, price wars continued in July, but under the anti-involution backdrop in August, parcel prices may see some recovery. Franchise express companies are expected to see performance recovery amid the anti-involution trend.

Another securities firm noted that July price decline margins narrowed both year-on-year and month-on-month, with express delivery "anti-involution" efforts exceeding expectations and short-term competitive pressure easing. The firm continues to favor time-sensitive express delivery leaders with certain earnings growth and profit-valuation recovery opportunities for e-commerce express companies.

Related Hong Kong stocks in the express delivery industry include: ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057), SF HOLDING (06936), SF Intra-city (09699), JD Logistics (02618), YTO International Express (06123), and others.