With over nine months remaining until the US midterm elections, the former president is under pressure to deliver achievements that exceed expectations in order to revive his declining approval ratings. However, a significant policy initiative planned for 2025—the implementation of reciprocal tariffs—has been ruled unlawful by the US Supreme Court. If an alternative legal basis for imposing these tariffs cannot be established, the proposed trade war risks devolving into a political farce.

On the evening of February 24th, Eastern Time, the former president delivered his first State of the Union address of his second term before Congress. The speech, which lasted 107 minutes and set a record for the longest in US history, covered topics including immigration, inflation, and the fentanyl crisis. He used exaggerated language to describe his accomplishments over the past year, but the indifferent and cold reactions from Democratic lawmakers suggested his claims lack broad acceptance.

**US Dollar:** During the address, the former president stated, "Inflation is falling sharply. Within 12 months, my administration drove core inflation to its lowest level in over five years." Regardless of the accuracy of this characterization of inflation, his stance indicates a belief that the probability of a significant resurgence in high inflation is low. Consequently, he advocates for the Federal Reserve to abandon its restrictive interest rate policy and instead implement substantial and sustained rate cuts. This aligns with his consistent position on monetary policy. Should the Federal Reserve yield to this pressure, especially after Chair Powell's term concludes, the US Dollar Index could face considerable downward pressure.

**Gold:** The former president also remarked during his speech, "We are negotiating with them. They want a deal, but we have not yet heard promises that meet our expectations." The relationship between the United States and Iran remains a major global focal point, second only to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The US holds a dominant position in negotiations concerning Iran's nuclear program. Reports indicate that US and Iranian officials are scheduled to meet in Geneva this week, signaling a potential thaw in relations. However, with two US aircraft carriers deployed to the Middle East, the risk of an accidental military confrontation remains elevated. Following events in Venezuela, observers no longer dismiss the possibility that the former president is willing to take military action beyond applying "maximum pressure." A US strike against Iran could trigger a sharp rally in the prices of gold and crude oil.

**Market Analysis:** In terms of market performance, gold reached an intermediate-term high of $5,597 and an intermediate-term low of $4,403, with the latest price at $5,187. Yesterday's trading session closed with a negative candle, ending the consecutive positive trends from the previous Friday and Monday. The channel lines on the chart delineate the current upward price movement. A failure to break above the upper boundary of this channel could lead to a short-term reversal and a decline in gold prices. From a market sentiment perspective, although gold experienced a significant sell-off at the end of January, the duration was brief and insufficient to instill sustained panic in the market. This lack of a thorough market shake-out increases the likelihood of a secondary price decline to test recent lows.