Orient Securities has released a research report stating that the United States officially began its tariff refund procedure on April 20 local time, involving approximately $166 billion. With rising U.S. restocking demand and lower tariff costs, cross-border e-commerce companies are expected to see improved profitability. The report highlights leading firms' product innovation and market share growth, expressing optimism about supply-side improvements and a major product innovation cycle in the cross-border e-commerce sector. Key points from Orient Securities are as follows:

The United States officially launched the tariff refund process on April 20, covering roughly $166 billion. As of early March, more than 330,000 U.S. importers had submitted over 53 million customs declarations and prepaid or paid tariff duties under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, involving funds of around $166 billion (approximately ¥1.13 trillion). U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has developed a new system called the Customs Assessment and Protest Entry System (CAPE) and is implementing it in phases. The first phase mainly covers about 63% of declarations—those not yet liquidated or liquidated within 80 days. Declarations liquidated more than 80 days ago or involving complex situations such as anti-dumping or countervailing duties will be handled in later stages. By April 9, around 56,000 importers had completed the electronic refund process, involving roughly $127 billion.

Tariff refunds are subject to three conditions, and the final process remains uncertain, though it may boost U.S. restocking demand. Refunds can only be applied for by U.S. Importer of Record (IOR) or their authorized customs brokers; export chain companies must confirm whether they are on the IOR list. Declarations must involve IEEPA tariffs; tariffs under Section 301, Section 232, and those imposed under Section 122 starting February 2026 are not eligible for this refund. The customs declaration status must fall within the scope of this round. Orient Securities notes that although CBP indicates refunds are typically issued within 60–90 days after CAPE filing acceptance, the timeline may extend if compliance reviews or special declaration statuses are involved. Additionally, the U.S. government filed an appeal with the court on April 13 and applied for a stay order, attempting to partially or fully suspend the refund process, increasing uncertainty. Weakening expectations of future tariff hikes may help boost U.S. restocking demand.

The report remains positive on supply-side improvements and the major product innovation cycle in cross-border e-commerce. On the industry supply side, with the implementation of regulations such as the "Internet Platform Enterprise Tax-Related Information Reporting Provisions" and related announcements, tax reporting obligations have been explicitly extended to all overseas internet platforms serving Chinese operators. This is expected to alleviate underreporting and tax evasion, as well as disorderly price competition overseas, benefiting leading companies. Regarding tariffs, U.S. reciprocal tariffs on China starting April 2025 have significantly increased costs for cross-border e-commerce firms; the year-on-year reduction in tariff costs from the second quarter of 2026 will further support profitability recovery. In terms of product innovation, examples include Anker Innovations' balcony photovoltaic storage systems, Anker Innovations' UV printers, and Ugreen Technology's NAS devices. Other companies are also actively promoting product innovation, enhancing the brand strength of leading firms.

Related listed companies in cross-border e-commerce B2C include Anker Innovations, Ugreen Technology, Seway, ZIOTech, Huakai Yibai, and Jihong. In cross-border e-commerce B2B, related companies include China Small Commodities City and Focus Technology. Other relevant directions include Sumec, Conant Optical, and Miniso. Risks include intensified industry competition, slower-than-expected progress in tariff refunds, and fluctuations in exchange rates and shipping costs.