Spot market data shows the LME zinc premium at $151.50 per tonne. In China, the SMM Shanghai zinc spot price moved up 270 yuan per tonne to 27,545 yuan per tonne, carrying a spread of -105 yuan per tonne. The Guangdong market saw its spot price rise 270 yuan per tonne to 27,555 yuan per tonne with a spread of -95 yuan per tonne, while Tianjin's spot price climbed 270 yuan per tonne to 27,500 yuan per tonne with a spread of -150 yuan per tonne.

Turning to futures, the main Shanghai zinc contract opened at 27,690 yuan per tonne on September 10, 2026, and settled at 27,475 yuan per tonne, down 10 yuan per tonne from the previous session. Daily trading volume reached 178,157 lots with open interest of 146,675 lots. The intraday peak hit 27,895 yuan per tonne, while the low touched 27,305 yuan per tonne.

Inventory data indicates that total zinc ingot stocks across seven major Chinese regions stood at 218,200 tonnes as of September 10, 2026, a decrease of 3,900 tonnes from the prior period. Over the same timeframe, LME zinc inventory dropped by 4,325 tonnes to 111,350 tonnes.

US producer price data exceeded market expectations, pushing the probability of a September rate hike above 70 percent and triggering a sharp pullback in zinc prices from elevated levels. Market participants should monitor the arrival of domestic delivery-grade material at LME warehouses; a potential retreat in overseas premiums could weigh on prices in the near term. On the micro level, no bearish factors have emerged, and concerns over actual consumption appear overblown. Overseas demand remains robust, while domestic consumption may benefit from anticipated policy support.

Mine supply continues to provide strong support, with the downward trend in ore supply remaining intact. Additionally, August smelter output fell short of expectations, and September production forecasts are again being revised lower, indicating that the supply bottleneck is shifting from mining toward smelting. Downstream operating rates have been improving, and following the price correction triggered by macro pressures, purchasing enthusiasm is expected to rise. With CPI data and the upcoming rate decision poised to introduce further volatility, this period presents a window to establish hedging positions for zinc buyers.

Key risks to monitor include unexpected disruptions to overseas mine supply, weaker-than-expected domestic consumption, and greater-than-anticipated shifts in liquidity conditions.