On April 7, Eastern Time, less than 12 hours after issuing an apocalyptic threat that "an entire civilization will perish tonight," U.S. President Donald Trump dramatically announced his acceptance of an Iranian ceasefire proposal. The decision came with just 88 minutes remaining before his self-imposed deadline.

In a post on a social media platform, Trump stated, "I have agreed to suspend bombing and attack operations against Iran for a period of two weeks." This move marks a significant turn in the U.S.-Iran tensions that have lasted for weeks, triggering a "relief rally" across global markets. However, Iran warned that accepting negotiations does not signify the end of the war, asserting that it would retaliate with full force if the U.S. makes any "minor mistake" in the future.

Eighty-Eight Minutes Before the "Deadline": From Threat to Concession

At 8:06 AM that morning, Trump had issued an ultimatum on social media, warning that unless an agreement was reached by 8:00 PM that evening, "an entire civilization will perish tonight." However, by 6:32 PM, he announced his acceptance of a mediation plan proposed by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This left only 88 minutes before his threatened "doomsday strike."

Trump explained that the decision was made because the Iranian government had agreed to "comprehensively, immediately, and safely" reopen shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and that the U.S. had "achieved and exceeded all military objectives." He also mentioned receiving a "ten-point proposal" from Iran, which he deemed "provides a feasible basis for bilateral negotiations," adding that the two sides had "reached consensus on almost all disputed issues."

However, observers are familiar with Trump's pattern of "maximum pressure followed by retreat." Just on April 5, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum on social media, demanding Iran "surrender or face destruction." On April 6, he extended the deadline, stating Iran had "less than 24 hours" left. At 8:00 AM on April 7, he escalated his rhetoric again, issuing a doomsday warning that an agreement must be reached within 12 hours or "an entire civilization will perish tonight." Yet, by the evening of April 7, he suddenly announced acceptance of a two-week ceasefire. Shifting from aggressive threats to a "peaceful smile," Trump completed multiple reversals within just three days.

U.S. media commentary widely described this last-minute concession with terms like "TACO" (an acronym for 'Trump Always Chickens Out'), suggesting his "maximum pressure" strategy had once again ended in compromise.

Iran's Stance: Accepting the Ceasefire Proposal

Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement in the early hours of April 8, local time, confirming acceptance of the ceasefire proposal but emphasizing that negotiations would proceed "under a premise of complete distrust towards the United States."

Official Iranian media reported that the statement from the Supreme National Security Council indicated Iran would only consider a final end to the war after all details of the "ten-point plan" were finalized. The plan includes stringent conditions such as: coordinated management of Strait of Hormuz transit with Iran's armed forces, complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from bases in the Gulf region, cancellation of all primary and secondary sanctions, full compensation payments from the U.S. to Iran, and the release of all frozen Iranian assets.

The statement concluded with a warning: "Our fingers remain on the trigger. If the enemy makes even the slightest mistake, we will retaliate with full force."

Global Markets Experience Relief Rally: Oil Prices Plunge 15%

The news significantly boosted market risk appetite. Oil prices, which had been pushed higher by the ongoing crisis, finally fell, while equity markets, which had suffered heavy impacts, experienced a substantial recovery.

In Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 index surged 5%, South Korea's KOSPI 200 futures rose 5%, triggering a circuit breaker, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 4% to 246.42 points. U.S. stock futures were also strong, with S&P 500 index futures rising 2.1%.

The cryptocurrency market saw gains across the board. Bitcoin rose 2.9% to $71,334, while Ethereum saw a larger increase of 5.1%.

Commodity markets experienced sharp volatility. Brent crude futures opened down 15%, currently trading at $93 per barrel, falling below the $100 mark. Gold continued its upward trend, with spot gold's intraday gains expanding to nearly 3%, rising above $4,835 to set a new historical high.

In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.6%. The onshore yuan extended its gains against the dollar, briefly breaking through the 6.8300 level during trading to hit its highest intraday level since March 2023, with a daily increase of over 300 points.

Expert Warning: War Premium May Persist for Months

Despite the significant improvement in market sentiment, several strategists remain cautious about the durability of the ceasefire.

Bloomberg strategist Cranfield pointed out: "There is a long way to go before a credible exit path appears. Even if peace is ultimately achieved, crude oil prices may carry a war premium for several months to come."

Robert Rennie, Head of Commodity Research at Westpac Banking Group, stated: "Newsflow can reverse repeatedly, but physical systems cannot revert to their original state quickly. Restarting shut-in oil wells, redeploying personnel and vessels, and rebuilding refinery inventories will all take at least several months."

Michele, a Forex and Commodity Strategist at Pepperstone Group, wrote in a client note: "As we have pointed out many times before, market participants in recent weeks have been desperate for any form of positive news and even more eager to see tangible de-escalation actions."

According to the arrangement, U.S.-Iran negotiations are scheduled to begin on April 10 (this Friday) in Islamabad, Pakistan, and will last for two weeks. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited delegations from both sides to Pakistan for the talks. The ceasefire officially took effect at 3:30 AM Iran time on April 8 (8:00 AM Beijing Time).